. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Wheat.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Wheat.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Wheat.

22 May 2024

Introduction

Gold prices retreat from recent highs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s minutes release, reflecting concerns over rising U.S. interest rates. Industrial metals, including copper, also decline amid cooling speculative activity and steady dollar strength. Meanwhile, silver depreciates as hawkish Fed comments hint at prolonged higher rates. Traders await the Fed’s insights while oil slips on expectations of sustained inflation impacting U.S. interest rates. Wheat surges to a 10-month peak on reduced Russian supply forecasts amid adverse weather conditions.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices retreat from record highs with Fed minutes on tap.

Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, pulling back further from record highs as anxiety over high U.S. interest rates grew ahead of more cues from the Federal Reserve. Losses extended into industrial metals, with copper prices pulling back further from recent record highs as a speculative frenzy in the red metal cooled ahead of more cues on physical supply and overall demand. A steady dollar also weighed on metal prices, while safe haven demand for gold cooled amid little signs of worsening geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, after the Iranian President was killed in a helicopter crash. Gold hit by rate jitters as Fed minutes loom . The minutes of the Fed’s late-April meeting, which are due later on Wednesday, were now in focus for more cues from the central bank.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2388.2879 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2363.4541 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2299.5286 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2383.8985 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2350.0895 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2304.4634 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 64.4693 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.73 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2400.86 | Take Profit : 2440.67 | Stop Loss : 2378.40

SILVER

XAG/USD falls to near $31.50 amid hawkish Fedspeak.

Silver price depreciates as hawkish remarks from Fed officials suggest higher rates for longer.The higher US Dollar is dampening the demand for Silver.Traders await the FOMC Minutes to gain further clues about the Fed’s policy stance.Silver price continues to lose ground after retreating from the highest level of $32.51, a level not seen since December 2012. The Silver price trades around $31.80 per troy ounce during the European hours on Wednesday. Investors assess recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials, with several policymakers advocating for continued policy caution. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins highlighted on Tuesday that progress toward interest rate adjustment will require more time, emphasizing patience as the appropriate policy for the Fed. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that he would need to observe several more months of positive inflation data before feeling comfortable supporting a policy easing, per Reuters.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 31.45 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 31.64 | Positive Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 30.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 28.81 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 65.66 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 6.08 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 32.49 R2 : 33.89
  • S1 : 30.86 S2 : 29.16

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 30.49 | Take Profit : 32.49 | Stop Loss : 29.35

CRUDE OIL

Oil slips for third day on likely ‘higher for longer’ US rates.

Oil prices fell over 1% on Wednesday, retreating for a third straight day on expectations the Federal Reserve might keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer due to sustained inflation, potentially impacting fuel use in the world’s largest consumer. The market also slipped as U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday. Analysts expected them to decline. Oil settled about 1% lower on Tuesday. Physical crude markets have been weakening and in another sign that concern of tight prompt supply is easing, the premium of Brent’s first-month contract over the second, known as backwardation, is close to its lowest since January. Investors are awaiting minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting and, following the API data, the latest official U.S. oil inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due later on Wednesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.9604 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.7364 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.4227 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.9115 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.6555 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.9442 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 38.6626 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 0 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell : 78.16 | Take Profit : 75.79 | Stop Loss : 79.88

WHEAT

Wheat hits 10-month high on expectations of lower Russian supply.

Chicago wheat futures rose on Wednesday to their highest levels since last July as adverse weather led to further downgrades of harvest estimates in Russia, the biggest exporter, fuelling a rally that has pushed prices up 18% so far this month. Also helping wheat were concerns of crop damage spreading to Ukraine, another major global supplier, and a decline in crop condition ratings in the United States. The market temporarily extended gains above $7 per bushel following a 6% rise in the previous session.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 694.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 682.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 658.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 686.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 679.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 656.67 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 71.43 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 729.94 R2 : 767.67
  • S1 : 693.06 S2 : 653.60

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 699.92 | Take Profit : 741.09 | Stop Loss : 679.33

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.17%) at 2416.77, Silver is down (0.69%) at 31.74, Palladium is down (0.91%) at 1016.63, Platinum up (0.76%) at 1054.72, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.67%) at 81.94, WTI Crude Oil down (0.69%) at 77.61 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.50% at 07:30. (NZD) RBNZ Rate Statement at 07:30. (NZD) RBNZ Press Conference at 08:30. (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Apr) Forecast 2.1%, Previous 3.2% at 11:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00. (GBP) Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:35. (USD) Existing Home Sales (Apr) Forecast 4.21M, Previous 4.19M at 19:30. (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes at 23:30.