. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold defies Fed, oil resilient, corn weathers, gas rallies.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold defies Fed, oil resilient, corn weathers, gas rallies.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold defies Fed, oil resilient, corn weathers, gas rallies.

19 Dec 2023

Introduction

In today’s market overview, we delve into key developments shaping the financial landscape. Gold maintains its stronghold above $2,000 despite uncertainties surrounding a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, oil prices show resilience amid concerns over Red Sea ship attacks, prompting discussions about safeguarding crucial trade routes. Corn prices see modest gains amidst global dynamics, influenced by factors such as improved weather in Brazil and robust U.S. soybean exports. Additionally, U.S. natural gas futures rose for the fourth consecutive day, driven by seasonal demand and record flows to LNG export plants. Join us for a concise exploration of these market dynamics and more.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold Holds Above $2,000 Despite Dovish Pivot Doubts

Gold prices dipped slightly on Tuesday as Federal Reserve officials tempered expectations of an immediate dovish shift. The precious metal, however, stayed above $2,000 an ounce, moving toward the low-$2,000s amid signs of a less dovish U.S. monetary policy. The dollar’s resilience, bouncing back from four-month lows, also weighed on gold. Despite Fed officials downplaying immediate rate cuts, markets retained expectations for early cuts, with a nearly 63% chance of a 25 basis point cut in March 2024. Gold, benefiting from a lower rate environment, held its ground above $2,000, reflecting ongoing investor interest amid evolving monetary policy sentiments.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2019.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2012.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1986.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2015.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2019.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1985.28 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.62 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 29.57 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2052.82 R2 : 2082.09
  • S1 : 1958.07 S2 : 1928.79

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2040 | Take Profit: 2071 | Stop Loss: 2034

Crude

Oil Prices Stable Amid Red Sea Ship Attacks

Oil prices showed little change on Tuesday as Houthi militants’ attacks on ships in the Red Sea raised concerns about disruptions to maritime trade. Brent crude edged up 6 cents to $78.01 a barrel, while the expiring U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract fell 18 cents to $72.29 a barrel. Major companies, including BP and Frontline, temporarily halted Red Sea transits, indicating a broader crisis involving energy shipments. Analysts believe the impact on oil prices is limited, as vessels can be redirected. The situation prompted discussions among the U.S. and allies about forming a task force to protect Red Sea routes, drawing warnings from Iran. In Iran, a cyberattack disrupted petrol stations nationwide, with a hacking group claiming responsibility. The U.S. plans to push for more transparency from shippers on their Russian oil dealings to enforce sanctions, acknowledging challenges posed by a parallel Russian fleet escaping Western oversight.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 76.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.97 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.21 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 75.77 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.01 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 82.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.26 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.44 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.87 R2 : 88.51
  • S1 : 77.31 S2 : 74.67

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 71.42 | Take Profit: 68.48 | Stop Loss: 72.50

CORN

Corn Prices Stable Amid Global Dynamics

Corn prices saw modest gains on Tuesday as the market reacted to various global factors. The most active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) edged up by 0.2% to $4.78 a bushel. Improved weather in Brazil and strong U.S. soybean exports influenced market sentiment. The recent record of corn imports by China and the Argentine government’s move to raise export taxes for soybean oil and meal added to the complex dynamics impacting corn prices. Global agricultural markets remain interconnected, with shifting conditions in different regions affecting the outlook for corn and other crops.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.73 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.75 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.85 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.85 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.64 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 35.82 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 490 R2 : 512
  • S1 : 470 S2 : 440

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 470 | Take Profit: 440 | Stop Loss: 480

Natural Gas

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Rise for Fourth Day

U.S. natural gas futures gained for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, settling at $2.503 per million British thermal units. Seasonal demand and record gas flows to LNG export plants contributed to the upward trend. LNG export facilities have seen an average of 14.7 billion cubic feet per day in December. Concerns over Red Sea ship attacks impacting maritime trade were noted, but analysts expect limited effects on LNG markets. The recent price increase follows overselling in November, and potential further rises may depend on the severity of January and February cold weather. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has increased to 108.4 billion cubic feet per day in December. Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts the first-month Henry Hub natural gas future to average $3.2/MMBtu in 2024.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.34 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.48 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.31 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 40.62 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.09 R2 : 3.27
  • S1 : 2.52 S2 : 2.34

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2.3843 | Take Profit: 2.1100 | Stop Loss: 2.4500

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Crude Oil WTI: $72.60 (-0.22, -0.30%) Brent Oil: $77.81 (-0.14, -0.18%) Natural Gas: $2.466 (-0.037, -1.48%) Gold: $2,039.95 (-0.55, -0.03%) Silver: $24.218 (+0.111, +0.46%) Copper: $3.8872 (+0.0352, +0.91%) US Soybeans: $1,317.38 (-8.62, -0.65%)

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

8:00 PM (IST)-USD-FOMC Member Barkin Speaks