. Daily Commodity Analysis - gold dip, copper flat.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold dip, copper flat.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold dip, copper flat.

26 Jun 2024

Introduction

WTI crude holds near $81.00, supported by supply concerns despite demand uncertainties and modest USD strength. Meanwhile, natural gas futures fall amid high production, gold prices dip with a strong dollar, and copper prices stay flat due to caution over China’s economic outlook and trade tensions.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI sticks to gains near $81.00 mark, remains below two-month high set on Tuesday.

WTI regains positive traction on Wednesday amid concerns about supply disruption.Demand uncertainty might cap any meaningful upside amid a modest USD strength.The official US inventory data to provide some impetus ahead of the US PCE on Friday.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices attract fresh buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and reverse a part of the previous day’s retracement slide from the $81.65 area, or a nearly two-month top. The commodity currently trades around the $81.00/barrel mark, up over 0.50% for the day amid persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from Israeli strikes on Gaza and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned US Ambassador Lynne Tracy earlier this week and blamed the US for a barbaric attack in Crimea and said that retaliatory measures would “definitely follow”. Furthermore, the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon remains alive in the wake of soaring tensions on provocations by Hezbollah, fueling concerns about supply disruptions from the key Oil producing countries. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the black liquid, though worries about weaker demand in the top Oil consuming nation might keep a lid on any further gains.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.3660 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.5436 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.4167 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.5317 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.3625 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3325 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.5645 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 89.7967 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.46 | Take Profit : 83.38 | Stop Loss : 80.27

NATURAL GAS

Nat Gas Futures Under Pressure from Rising Production Estimates.

Natural gas futures floundered once again, dragged lower by elevated supply concerns and repositioning ahead of the prompt month expiration this week.Natural gas futures decline for a third session, trading below the 200-day moving average.High production levels and a surplus in storage impact natural gas prices despite increased demand.Summer demand, driven by electricity generation and LNG exports, changes traditional market patterns.July natural gas futures faced pressure from rising Lower 48 production estimates ahead of Wednesday’s expiration. Analysts anticipated struggles for July, while bulls hoped weather factors would boost August futures past resistance levels.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7471 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6881 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.4535 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7629 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.7020 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3671 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.3510 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.2575 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.90 | Take Profit : 2.69 | Stop Loss : 3.05

GOLD

Gold prices dip as dollar steadies with eyes on inflation.

Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Wednesday, extending losses from the prior session as traders remained largely biased towards the dollar in anticipation of key U.S. inflation data. The yellow metal also stuck to a trading range- around the low $2,300 an ounce range- established through most of June, as the prospect of high U.S. rates clouded its price outlook. Gold prices range bound with PCE inflation on tap The yellow metal trended lower this week, with trading volumes remaining limited as markets awaited PCE price index inflation data due this week. The reading, which is due on Friday, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and is likely to factor into the central bank’s outlook on interest rates. Recent signs of resilience in the U.S. economy- from strong purchasing managers index data and consumer confidence readings- sparked fears that the Fed will have enough headroom to keep rates high for longer. Several Fed officials echoed this notion this week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2326.5699 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2330.6061 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2318.2337 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2325.7369 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2329.0471 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2339.7847 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.2528 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 35.8171 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2324.78 | Take Profit : 2294.03 | Stop Loss : 2350.22

COPPER

Copper prices muted amid China caution.

Among industrial metals, copper prices traded sideways on Wednesday and were nursing steep losses through June amid growing caution over top importer China. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $9,561.50 a tonne, while one-month copper futures steadied at $4.3695 a pound. The prospect of a trade war between China and the West dampened sentiment towards copper, especially following the introduction of steep import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in the European Union and the U.S. The tariffs also herald more headwinds for the EV industry, which is pegged to be a major source of copper demand in the coming years.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 34.83 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.92 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.45 R2 : 4.66
  • S1 : 4.24 S2 : 4.03

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.43 | Take Profit : 4.20 | Stop Loss : 4.59

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.07%) at 2317.10, Silver up (0.37%) at 28.99, Palladium up (1.59%) at 950.72, Platinum up (1.49%) at 996.21, Brent Crude Oil up (0.46%) at 84.50, WTI Crude Oil up (0.54%) at 81.15 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May) Previous 0.2% at 08:30. (USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.386M, Previous 1.440M at 08:30. (USD) New Home Sales (May) Forecast 336K, Previous 634K at 10:00. (JPY) Retail Sales (YoY) (May) Forecast 2.0%, Previous 2.4% at 19:50.