. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold dips, copper surges, oil climbs.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, copper surges, oil climbs.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, copper surges, oil climbs.

04 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold prices retreat from recent all-time highs, hovering below $2,300 ahead of US data. Profit-taking near Thursday’s peak prompts a slight decline, although the uncertain Fed rate-cut trajectory weighs on the US Dollar, potentially supporting gold. Geopolitical tensions offer a floor to losses. Meanwhile, copper hits 14-month highs driven by China optimism and supply concerns, while oil sees modest gains amid supply worries and US economic growth signs. Corn futures close higher midweek amid ethanol output data and farmers’ reduced planting intentions for 2024, sparking supply concerns.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price moves away from all-time peak, remains depressed below $2,300 ahead of US data.

Gold price ticks lower amid some profit-taking near the all-time peak set this Thursday. The uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-cut path weighs on the USD and should lend support. Persistent geopolitical tensions might also contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats after hitting a fresh record high earlier this Thursday and extends its steady intraday descent through the first half of the European session. Bulls opt to take some profits off the table amid overbought conditions on short-term charts and a positive risk tone, which tends to undermine the safe-haven precious metal. Any meaningful corrective decline, however, still seems elusive in the wake of persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2242.3283 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2202.2080 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2134.1226 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2229.4551 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2199.4745 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2105.6861 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 80.7176 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.04 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2284.91 | Take Profit: 2302.65 | Stop Loss: 2274.38

COPPER

Copper prices hit 14-month highs on China optimism, tight supply outlook.

Copper prices rose to 14-month highs in Asian trade on Thursday, buoyed by increasing optimism over top importer China, while potential production cuts by the country’s biggest refiners presented a tighter outlook for supplies. Weakness in the dollar also aided commodity prices, as the greenback tumbled from five-month highs hit earlier this week. China PMIs show improving factory activity, and support copper prices Sentiment towards copper was boosted by a string of positive purchasing managers index readings from China, which showed improving manufacturing activity through March. While Chinese copper inventories were seen increasing so far in 2024, higher demand could still push up the country’s appetite for copper imports, especially if the world’s second-largest economy recovers further.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.13 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.02 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.06 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.01 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 73.74 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.25 R2 : 4.37
  • S1 : 4.12 S2 : 4.00

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.11 | Take Profit: 4.25 | Stop Loss: 4.02

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil inches up on concerns of lower supply, signs of U.S. economic growth.

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday on concerns of lower supply as major producers are keeping output cuts in place and on signs of stronger economic growth in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. A meeting of top ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) including Russia, kept oil supply policy unchanged on Wednesday and pressed some countries to boost compliance with output cuts. Oil’s recent gains have followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries that cut fuel supply and concerns that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza may spread to include Iran, possibly disrupting supplies in the key Middle East region.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 87.6343 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 86.2901 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 84.0711 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 87.2636 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 85.8450 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 83.4500 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 69.1612 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.1840 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 87.7408 R2 : 89.3012
  • S1 : 82.6892 S2 : 81.1288

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 87.59 | Take Profit: 89.83 | Stop Loss: 86.27

CORN

Midweek Corn Market Closes Higher.

Corn futures closed -2 cents off their highs on a midweek bounce. Futures were up by 2 ½ to 5 ¼ cents across the front months, though May is still at a net 10-cent loss for the week’s trade. EIA data showed ethanol producers averaged 1.073m barrels per day during the week that ended 3/29. That was the largest weekly output since the week of 2/23. Ethanol stocks were listed at 26.416 million gallons, a 324k barrel increase. According to the report, farmers across the nation are anticipating planting fewer acres of corn in 2024, citing various factors such as decreased profitability due to lower prices in preceding months and crop rotation strategies. This shift in planting intentions has sparked concerns within the agricultural community, as it could potentially lead to tighter supplies and increased corn prices in the immediate future.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2683 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2649 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3122 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.2736 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.2687 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.1193 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.8250 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3971 R2 : 4.4669
  • S1 : 4.1709 S2 : 4.1011

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 448.59 | Take Profit: 431.75 | Stop Loss: 460.79

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.31%) at 2292.89, Silver is down (0.51%) at 27.04, Palladium is down (0.35%) at 1010.50, Platinum is up (0.64%) at 936.50, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.03%) at 89.38, WTI Crude Oil up (0.02%) at 85.48 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Composite PMI (Mar) Forecast 52.9, Previous 53.0 at 14:00. (GBP) Service PMI (Mar) Forecast –53.4, Previous –53.8 at 14:00. (EUR) ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting at 17:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 213K, Previous 210K at 18:00.