. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Dips, Silver Falls, WTI Drops.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Dips, Silver Falls, WTI Drops.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Dips, Silver Falls, WTI Drops.

08 Jul 2024

Introduction

Gold prices dip as the PBoC pauses its gold purchases for the second consecutive month, while silver and WTI also face declines amid rising Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical developments. U.S. natural gas futures continue to drop due to high production and cooling weather forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price edges lower as PBoC keeps Gold buying on hold.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers during the early European session on Monday. The precious metal loses traction as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the Chinese central bank kept Gold buying on hold for the second month in June, according to official data released on Sunday. It’s worth noting that China is the world’s biggest bullion consumer, and the pause in gold buying could weigh on the Gold price. On the other hand, the rising speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the interest rate in the third quarter might lift the non-yielding Gold price. Furthermore, the political uncertainty in France after exit polls indicated the final round of the French parliamentary elections pointed to a hung parliament, which might boost safe-haven assets like Gold. Traders will take more cues from the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell, who testifies on Tuesday ahead of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2350.7819 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2342.2349 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2326.4930 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2340.5144 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2333.3485 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2340.4109 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.9260 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 87.3029 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2362.46 | Take Profit : 2399.26 | Stop Loss : 2340.82

SILVER

XAG/USD tumbles below $31.00 as US Dollar rebounds.

Silver price trades in negative territory around $30.95 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.95% on the day. The US economy added fewer jobs in June, and Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since late 2021. Fed’s hawkish stance or hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data might weigh on the white metal. Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to $30.95 during the early European session on Monday. The white metal declines on the back of renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and higher US bond yields. However, the precious metal’s losses might be limited by the rising bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. The US employment report on Friday showed that employers added fewer jobs in June and that the Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since late 2021, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States saw 206K job additions in June. The previous month saw a sharp downside revision to 218K from the initial reading of 272K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1% in June from 4% in May.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.59 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.20 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 30.63 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.98 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.76 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 67.01 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 89.39 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.38 R2 : 32.49
  • S1 : 30.49 S2 : 28.86

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 30.67 | Take Profit : 31.85 | Stop Loss : 29.69

CRUDE OIL

WTI falls to near $82.00 due to ongoing discussion to end Gaza conflict.

WTI price loses ground due to ongoing discussions about a US ceasefire plan to end the Gaza war.Oil prices may appreciate as Tropical Storm Beryl could disrupt US energy supplies.Rising bets on Fed rate cuts could provide support for the Oil demand.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses, trading around $82.00 per barrel during the European session on Monday. This decrease is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly with the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza. This development has alleviated concerns over supply disruptions. According to Reuters, discussions about a US ceasefire plan to end the nine-month-old conflict in Gaza are ongoing, with Qatar and Egypt mediating the negotiations. The decline in Oil prices might be halted due to potential disruptions to US energy supplies from Tropical Storm Beryl. On Sunday, the ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport, and Texas City were closed in preparation for Hurricane Beryl. The storm is expected to make landfall along the middle of the Texas coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi later on Monday, according to Reuters.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.4742 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.4199 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.3705 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.4698 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.2324 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3058 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.5637 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 73.1958 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.69 | Take Profit : 84.46 | Stop Loss : 80.16

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Cede More Ground.

U.S. natural gas futures extend their losing streak to eight sessions as higher U.S. production puts pressure on spot prices and near-term weather forecasts shed some cooling demand, although temperatures are seen heating up next week. Natural-gas futures posted a nearly 11% weekly drop , pressured by an apparent slowdown in demand that came ahead of the Fourth of July holiday — and prices could see further declines with the storm known as Beryl forecast to hit parts of Texas, potentially slamming demand for the fuel.Based on the current production levels, inventory surplus, and cooling weather forecasts, the short-term outlook for natural gas appears bearish. The market may continue to face downward pressure unless a significant shift in fundamentals occurs, such as a sustained period of extreme heat or a notable reduction in production.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4130 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.5001 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4274 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.4377 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6225 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4604 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 35.6221 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.1904 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.40 | Take Profit : 2.18 | Stop Loss : 2.58

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.77%) at 2372.55, Silver down (1.03%) at 30.88, Palladium down (2.72%) at 998.82, Platinum down (1.42%) at 1011.91, Brent Crude Oil down (1.31%) at 85.69, WTI Crude Oil down (1.32%) at 82.19 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) Eurogroup Meetings at 06:00. (AUD) NAB Business Confidence (Jun) Previous –3 at 21:30.