. Daily Commodity Analysis -Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.

14 Feb 2024

Introduction

“As Gold struggles near a two-month low, the stronger-than-expected US CPI data diminishes hopes of a Fed rate cut, keeping the precious metal below $2,000. Meanwhile, copper faces pressure from a stronger dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth, exacerbated by a massive deposit discovery in Zambia. Oil prices rise on positive demand forecasts, while natural gas languishes due to warmer weather predictions reducing heating demand.”

Markets In Focus Today – Gold

Gold price struggles near two-month low as hot US CPI temper Fed rate cut bets.

Gold price hits a fresh two-month low amid bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The expectations were reaffirmed by the stronger-than-expected US CPI released on Tuesday. A softer risk tone lends support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit any further losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to attract buyers and languishes below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low through the early European session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation report released on Tuesday reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal, though a combination of factors lends some support and helps limit the downside.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2017.0634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2023.9850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2022.0886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2025.0466 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2025.6890 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2032.2712 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.7932 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.4879 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
  • S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1994.62 | Take Profit: 1972.58 | Stop Loss: 2009.82

COPPER

Copper prices head towards a 3-month low amid dollar pressure.

Among industrial metals, copper prices saw extended losses on Wednesday and came back in sight of a three-month low, as a stronger dollar and the prospect of slowing economic growth weighed. The prospect of higher-for-longer rates also factored into concerns over slowing copper demand, given that economic activity usually cools in a high-rate environment. Copper prices were also still reeling from the discovery of a massive deposit in Zambia, which is expected to eventually increase global supply. But the deposit is expected to take a long time to transform into a full-capacity mine.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.77 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.70 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.3 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.83 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.72 R2 : 3.79
  • S1 : 3.66 S2 : 3.59

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 3.71 | Take Profit: 3.64 | Stop Loss: 3.75

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil rises as producers forecast demand growth, U.S. fuel stockpiles drop.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, reversing earlier losses, as major producer group OPEC kept to their relatively strong forecast for demand growth this year and an industry report showed a sharp decline in U.S. fuel stockpiles amid a refinery outage. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in their monthly report on Tuesday that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. Official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday at 1530 GMT.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.2495 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.5322 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.2008 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.3124 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.6082 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.6610 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.6364 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.8415 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.44 | Take Profit: 83.55 | Stop Loss: 80.32

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Continues to Languish.

The natural gas market continues to see a lot of selling pressure, as there is seemingly no bottom in this market at the moment. The natural gas market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but gave back gains as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. Current weather forecasts show a trend towards warmer conditions in the coming days, particularly from February 21-23. This warming is expected to significantly reduce heating demand, which is already reflected in the six consecutive sessions of declining natural gas prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.9871 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.1714 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4029 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.0188 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.2226 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4301 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 23.2682 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 1.9492 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.84 | Take Profit: 1.62 | Stop Loss: 1.97

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.19%) at 1988.91, Silver down (0.71%) at 21.94, Palladium down (0.49%) at 858.25, Platinum down (0.03%) at 873.43, Brent Crude Oil up (0.12%) at 82.90, WTI Crude Oil up (0.09%) at 77.94 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) CPI (YoY) (Jan) Actual 4.0%, Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.0% at 12:30. (EUR) GDP (QoQ) Forecast 0.0%, Previous –0.1% at 15:30. (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) Forecast –0.2%, Previous –0.3% at 15:30. (EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q4) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.0% at 15:30. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 3.300M, Previous 5.521M at 21:00.