. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold down, Silver up, Oil rebounds, Gas drops.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Silver up, Oil rebounds, Gas drops.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Silver up, Oil rebounds, Gas drops.

21 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices retreat from record highs amid profit-taking, while bets on Fed rate cuts bolster bullish sentiment. Despite hitting a fresh peak, the yellow metal faces selling pressure amidst a risk-on environment and a modest uptick in US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, silver prices aim to reclaim 11-month highs as the Fed’s dovish stance supports precious metals. Oil prices rebounded despite indications of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, supported by US crude and gasoline stock drawdowns.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price retreats from record peak amid some profit-taking, Fed rate cut bets favor bulls.

Gold price gains strong positive traction for the second straight day and refreshes record high. The Fed’s projected three rate cuts this year weigh on the USD and benefit the yellow metal. The prevalent risk-on mood prompts some profit-taking amid slightly overbought conditions. Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats after hitting a fresh record high earlier this Thursday and trades just above the $2,200 round-figure mark during the first half of the European session, still up for the second straight day. The prevalent risk-on environment – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – prompts some profit-taking around the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields is another factor undermining the commodity amid slightly overbought conditions on short-term charts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2163.9968 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2134.0972 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2085.3038 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2171.3921 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2126.0395 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2065.6496 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 74.8688 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.1500 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2181.60 | Take Profit: 2210.29 | Stop Loss: 2163.16

SILVER

XAG/USD aims to recapture an 11-month high slightly above $26.

Silver price advances toward an 11-month high at $26.14 as the US Dollar weakens. Fed’s projections for three rate cuts this year remain unabated. The market sentiment turns bullish on higher expectations for the Fed reducing interest rates from June. Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its upside to $25.70 in Thursday’s European session. The white metal is an inch away from reclaiming an 11-month high at $26.14. The appeal for precious metals has strengthened after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. For the fifth time in a row, the Fed kept key borrowing rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. The appeal of the US Dollar weakened after the Fed stuck with three rate cut projections for this year. This led to a significant increase in market expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates from the June meeting.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 25.19 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.99 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 25.14 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 25.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.23 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 73.2 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 25.65 R2 : 26.33
  • S1 : 24.79 S2 : 24.00

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 24.44 | Take Profit: 25.31 | Stop Loss: 23.89

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil rebounds after surprise drop in US crude, gasoline stocks.

Oil prices rebounded on Thursday as U.S. crude and gasoline stock drawdowns lent support despite signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Crude inventories in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, fell for a second week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday. Oil refinery runs ramped up by 127,000 barrels per day and utilization rates rose. The inventory numbers gave some support to the market after prices drifted lower the day before on a mixed outlook by Fed policymakers. While the U.S. central bank kept interest rates in the 5.25% to 5.50% range on Wednesday, policymakers barely kept to an outlook for three rate cuts this year, which suggested borrowing costs may stay higher for longer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 85.1590 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 84.1202 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 82.5619 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 84.7073 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.7006 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.9144 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.6549 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.1857 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 84.38 | Take Profit: 87.11 | Stop Loss: 82.91

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Settle Lower Ahead of Storage Report.

U.S. natural gas futures retreat in rang rebound trade ahead of Thursday’s EIA storage report. . Natural gas in underground storage likely edged up by 1 Bcf in the week ended March 15 to 2,326 Bcf. U.S. natural gas futures are lower after two days of gains on forecasts for some cold late-winter weather that could help limit the growing storage surplus. While another bullish EIA report tomorrow is possible, the overwhelming challenge of digging out from North American gas inventories 900 Bcf above normal is likely to suppress near-to-medium term upside.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7132 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7625 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9735 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7033 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7538 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0230 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.8577 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.0728 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.76 | Take Profit: 1.53 | Stop Loss: 1.95

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.88%) at 2205.36, Silver is up (0.15%) at 25.60, Palladium is up (0.84%) at 1030.41, Platinum is up (0.42%) at 911.24, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.51%) at 86.40, WTI Crude Oil up (0.47%) at 81.65 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1) Forecast 1.75%, Previous 1.75% at 04:30. (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) Forecast 43.1, Previous 42.5 at 04:30. (CHF) SNB Press Conference at 04:30. (GBP) Manufacturing PMI Forecast 47.9, Previous 47.5 at 05:30. (GBP) BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) Forecast 5.25%, Previous 5.25% at 08:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 212K, Previous 209K at 08:30. (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Mar) Forecast 51.8, Previous 52.2 at 09:45. (USD) Existing Home Sales (Feb) Forecast 3.95M, Previous 4.00M at 10:00.