. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Edges Up, Silver Surges, Oil Holds

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Edges Up, Silver Surges, Oil Holds

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Edges Up, Silver Surges, Oil Holds

27 May 2024

Introduction

Gold prices edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker US Dollar and geopolitical tensions. However, the outlook remains uncertain as bets on US rate cuts fade and the Fed adopts a hawkish stance. Silver also gained ground due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices rose on improved risk appetite, but concerns linger about potential Fed tightening. Natural gas prices dropped sharply on increased production and cooler weather forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices rise slightly after weekly losses; inflation in focus.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gathers strength on Monday. The softer US Dollar (USD) and the renewed escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide some support to the yellow metal. In the longer term, the precious metal might be bolstered by the growing central banks’ demand for gold. Nonetheless, the lower bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year and the hawkish stance from Fed officials might exert some selling pressure on XAU/USD as it makes gold less attractive as a store of value when interest rates rise. Broader trading volumes were also subdued on account of market holidays in the UK and the U.S., while anticipation more cues on U.S. interest rates also deterred big bets. PCE test looms as waning rate cut bets batter gold Focus this week was squarely on PCE price index data- the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The reading is due on Friday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2360.9805 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2353.5429 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2302.2114 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2376.4720 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2348.0905 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2314.2081 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.0012 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 18.82 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2331.50 | Take Profit : 2362.60 | Stop Loss : 2313.88

SILVER

XAG/USD surges to near $31.00 amid escalated geopolitical tensions.

Silver price advances due to escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Israeli strikes in Rafah on Sunday killed at least 35 people, intensifying pressure surrounding the conflict in Gaza.The subdued US Dollar reinforces the strength of the grey metal.Silver price rises to $30.80 per troy ounce during the European session on Monday. Safe-haven commodities like Silver have gained ground due to escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to CNN, Israeli strikes killed at least 35 people in Rafah on Sunday, increasing pressure over the war in Gaza. Officials stated that ceasefire and hostage talks will continue next week. However, the negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, with both parties unable to reach an agreement due to differences in key conditions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 30.48 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 31.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.57 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.55 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.08 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.16 R2 : 32.56
  • S1 : 29.83 S2 : 28.35

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 30.49 | Take Profit : 31.78 | Stop Loss : 29.83

CRUDE OIL

WTI remains above $77.50 due to improved risk appetite.

WTI Oil price attempts to extend its gains due to a recovery in overall market risk sentiment.University of Michigan’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for May eased slightly, bolstering expectations regarding the Fed’s rate cuts.Iran will increase its Oil output from 3.6 million to 4 million barrels per day.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price inches higher due to a recovery in overall market risk appetite, likely driven by investors’ anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. WTI price trades around $77.70 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for May eased slightly to 3.0%, down from the forecasted 3.1%. This decline in inflation expectations is bolstering investor sentiment regarding potential rate cuts by the Fed.Brent ended last week about 2% lower and WTI lost nearly 3% after Federal Reserve minutes showed some officials would be willing to tighten interest rates further if they believed it was necessary to control persistent inflation. Public holidays in the U.S. and UK on Monday are expected to keep trading relatively thin.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.3008 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.1398 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.0801 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.4311 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.7543 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.7536 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.7916 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 30.2703 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 78.41 | Take Profit : 76.24 | Stop Loss : 79.95

NATURAL GAS

Nat-Gas Prices Tumble on Cooler US Forecasts.

U.S. natural gas futures decline last week from technical pressures and fundamental factors.Gas prices drop sharply with increased production and lower-than-expected storage injections.Heatwave in the southern U.S. and hurricane predictions to influence the natural gas market.Natural gas prices fell sharply, reflecting adjustments after recent spikes. Increased production in response to high prices played a significant role. Weather forecasts indicated cooler conditions in the northern U.S., contributing to reduced demand expectations. Looking ahead, the natural gas market is likely to remain under pressure.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4745 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.3095 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.0919 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5036 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.2513 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.9329 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.7557 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 63.0885 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.66 | Take Profit : 2.92 | Stop Loss : 2.51

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.46%) at 2344.39, Silver up (1.46%) at 30.79, Palladium up (2.01%) at 984.35, Platinum up (3.16%) at 1058.11, Brent Crude Oil up (0.32%) at 82.36, WTI Crude Oil up (0.29%) at 77.98 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) Forecast –90.4, Previous –89.4 at 13:30. (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Apr) Previous –1.1% at 18:00.