. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold falls, Silver weak, Oil drops, Gas rises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold falls, Silver weak, Oil drops, Gas rises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold falls, Silver weak, Oil drops, Gas rises.

08 Jan 2024

Introduction 

Gold prices decline in Asian trade due to elevated US bond yields and uncertainties surrounding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite an intraday recovery, gold faces resistance near $2,064. Silver (XAG/USD) also experiences downward pressure, hovering near a multi-week low below $23.00, with a bearish technical setup. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped over 1% due to Saudi price cuts and increased OPEC output, offsetting concerns about Middle East tensions.

U.S. Natural Gas futures rise for a third week driven by speculative buying and short covering, emphasizing the market’s sensitivity to weather extremes. 

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price drifts lower amid elevated US bond yields, Fed rate cut uncertainty.  

Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, extending losses from the prior session as stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data saw markets reconsider expectations for early interest rate cuts. Gold price staged a goodish intraday recovery of around $40 from over a two-week low touched in the aftermath of the better-than-expected monthly employment details on Friday, albeit lacked any follow-through. The momentum ran out of steam near the $2,064 region amid the uncertainty about the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Gold also saw a heavy degree of profit-taking after a strong melt-up through December. The yellow metal ended 2023 with over 10% in gains. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2046.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 2041.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 2015.13 | Positive Crossover | Bullish  Simple :
  • MA 10 : 2055.33 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 2043.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 2013.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.36 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.50 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19 
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55 

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell  

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 2025.91 | Take Profit : 1999.61 | Stop Loss : 2046.03 

SILVER

XAG/USD hangs near multi-week low, seems vulnerable below $23.00.  

Silver meets with a fresh supply on Monday and drifts back closer to a multi-week low. The technical setup Favors bearish traders and supports prospects for deeper losses. Silver (XAG/USD) extends Friday’s retracement slide from the mid-$23.00s and continues losing ground through the early part of the European session on the first day of a new week. The white metal currently trades just below the $23.00 round figure and remains well within the striking distance of a three-week trough touched last Thursday. A sustained move beyond the $23.50 confluence is needed to negate the negative bias. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.02 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 23.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 23.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 23.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 23.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 23.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 34.02 | Sell Zone | Negative

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.07 | Sell Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 23.39 R2 : 24.08
  • S1 : 22.81 S2 : 21.85

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell  

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 22.68 | Take Profit : 21.85 | Stop Loss : 23.23

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil down more than 1% as Saudi price cuts offset Mid-East worries.  

Oil prices fell by more than 1% on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output, offsetting worries about escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Both contracts climbed more than 2% in the first week of 2024 after investors returned from holidays to focus on geopolitical risk in the Middle East following attacks by Yemeni Houthis on ships in the Red Sea. Rising supply and competition with rival producers prompted Saudi Arabia on Sunday to cut the February official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 78.21 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 80.16 | Negative Crossover | Bearish  Simple :
  •   Simple :
  • MA 10 : 78.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 77.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 79.99 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.23 | Buy Zone | Bullish 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.78 | Buy Zone | Negative 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82 
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18 

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell  

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 77.43 | Take Profit : 73.92 | Stop Loss : 80.16 

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas futures rise for third week amid speculative buying.  

Natural Gas Futures rally on speculative buying, short covering. Weather extremes drive contrasting market impacts. Traders cautioned against chasing weather-induced price trends. Over the past week, U.S. Natural Gas futures have continued their upward trajectory for a third consecutive week, reaching heights not seen since late November. This surge is not rooted in fundamental market shifts but is driven by a combination of speculative buying and short covering. Such movements reflect the market sensitivity to immediate environmental factors rather than long-standing economic indicators. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 2.57 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 2.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish  Simple :
  • MA 10 : 2.59 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 2.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 2.68 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.51 | Buy Zone | Bullish 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.21 | Buy Zone | Negative 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71 
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11 

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy  

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.812 | Take Profit : 3.083 | Stop Loss : 2.656 

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.79%) at 2029.23, Silver down (0.88%) at 22.97, Palladium down (1.48%) at 1009.62, Platinum down (0.35%) at 955.01, Brent Crude Oil down (0.79%) at 78.16, WTI Crude Oil down (0.83%) at 73.20 as of writing time. 

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) Actual 0.7%, Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.1% at 13:00.

(EUR) Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.1% at 15:30.

(EUR) Unemployment Rate (Nov) Previous 6.5% at 15:30.