. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold glimmers, copper wavers, corn dips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold glimmers, copper wavers, corn dips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold glimmers, copper wavers, corn dips.

15 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price bulls show hesitancy amidst reduced Fed rate cut expectations, while downside pressure remains tempered. Following Iran’s attack on Israel, gold sees a positive upturn during the early European session, yet faces resistance due to hawkish Federal Reserve sentiments and a bullish USD. Short-term focus lies on US Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index data. Meanwhile, copper prices display mixed trends post-weak China data, while WTI crude oil maintains stability around $85.00 amid the escalating Middle East crisis. Corn futures decline despite lower US supply projections, influenced by USDA’s report and Brazil’s crop agency Conab’s contrasting outlook on harvest yields.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price bulls seem non-committed amid reduced Fed rate cut bets, downside remains cushioned.

Gold price regains positive traction in reaction to Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. The upside remains capped amid hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and a bullish USD. The US Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index are eyed for short-term impetus. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a positive bias during the early European session and for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from a fresh all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched on Friday. Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend raised the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and tempered investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2322.7018 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2275.4238 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2186.0451 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2329.1783 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2262.0804 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2149.2230 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 72.6254 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.1119 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2344.47 | Take Profit : 2372.91 | Stop Loss : 2330.26

COPPER

Copper prices mixed after weak China data.

Among industrial metals, copper prices were a mixed bag on Monday amid pressure from a stronger dollar, as well as weak economic signals from top importer China. Both contracts remained close to 15-month highs, on expectations of tighter supplies as several major Chinese refiners signaled supply cuts. Russian copper exports were also slapped with new sanctions by the U.S. and UK. But this optimism was somewhat dulled by weak inflation and trade readings from China last week, which showed that economic growth in the world’s biggest copper importer remained weak. Meanwhile, aluminum prices rallied on Monday on the prospect of tighter supplies, as the U.S. and UK placed new sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.29 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.17 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.29 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.28 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.16 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.45 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.43 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.36 R2 : 4.48
  • S1 : 4.25 S2 : 4.10

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.28 | Take Profit : 4.35 | Stop Loss : 4.25

CRUDE OIL

WTI oscillates in range around $85.00 mark despite worsening Middle East crisis.

WTI kicks off the new week on a subdued note and reacts little to Iran’s attack on Israel. Worries about cooling fuel demand turn out to be a key factor capping the black liquid. The risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East to help limit the downside. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices fail to lure buyers despite Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Monday. The commodity currently trades just below the $85.00/barrel mark, nearly unchanged for the day as traders now await Israel’s response to the Iranian strike before placing fresh directional bets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 85.0920 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.9331 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.1408 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 85.8135 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.9589 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.2755 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.1878 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.3670 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 83.22 | Take Profit : 86.14 | Stop Loss : 81.61

CORN

Corn futures drop despite lower US supply numbers.

Chicago corn futures dipped after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected domestic ending stocks will remain at a five-year high, despite a reduction from last month. The USDA lowered its corn stock estimates to 2.122 billion bushels from 2.172 billion bushels in March.The agency continued to paint a different picture of Brazil’s harvest than Brazilian crop agency Conab. Earlier in the day, Conab reduced output projections for soy and corn, citing adverse climate in top grower Mato Grosso state for the fall in expected overall soy output and a smaller planted area for corn. The most active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Cv1 was down 5-1/2 cents at $4.28-3/4 a bushel.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2739 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2703 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3032 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.2678 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2772 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.2457 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.1123 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 41.9306 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3971 R2 : 4.4669
  • S1 : 4.1709 S2 : 4.1011

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 444.94 | Take Profit : 461.05 | Stop Loss : 435.74

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.37%) at 2351.78, Silver up (1.74%) at 28.32, Palladium down (0.74%) at 1041.39, Platinum down (0.85%) at 966.91, Brent Crude Oil down (0.88%) at 89.60, WTI Crude Oil down (1.06%) at 84.74 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) Forecast –0.8%, Previous –3.2% at 14:30. (CHF) PPI (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 12:00 (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00. (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.6% at 18:00.