. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold high, silver up, oil down, gas falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold high, silver up, oil down, gas falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold high, silver up, oil down, gas falls.

28 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices hover near record highs in Asian trading on Thursday as traders seek safe-haven assets ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation and interest rate cuts. Attention shifts to the core PCE inflation data due Friday, which may influence Fed rate cut timing. Silver prices rise to $24.70 before US core PCE Inflation data release. Meanwhile, WTI crude turns bearish near $81.50 following hawkish Fed comments and a surprise surge in US crude stockpiles. Oversupply concerns push U.S. natural gas futures to a 3-1/2-year low amid forecasts of reduced heating demand and decreased LNG export flows.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices are in sight of record highs.

Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Thursday, sitting near a record high as traders bought into the yellow metal ahead of more cues on U.S. inflation and interest rates. Bullion prices recovered a bulk of their losses this week as expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by as soon as June remained in play. But strength in the dollar, which sat near a one-month high, kept gold prices just off record highs. Gold prices steady with PCE data, Fed speakers in focus Focus was now squarely on PCE price index data- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge- which is due on Friday. Any signs of cooling inflation are likely to trigger strong gains in metal markets, given that they increase the chances of early interest rate cuts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2175.7183 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2152.1684 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2102.1751 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2174.5355 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2161.6291 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2080.1712 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 70.6457 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 57.2487 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2192.34 | Take Profit: 2211.79 | Stop Loss: 2180.82

SILVER

XAG/USD rises to $24.70 ahead of US core PCE Inflation.

Silver price moves higher to $24.70, while the broader trend is sideways. The core PCE inflation will provide cues about the Fed’s rate cut timing. Fed policymakers see three rate cuts by the year-end. Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to $24.70 in the late Asian session on Thursday. The white metal posts gains ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday. Core PCE will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The annual underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%, with monthly growth declining to 0.3% from 0.4% in January. Currently, market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates from the June policy meeting. The expectations also show that there will be three rate cuts by the year-end, as projected by Fed policymakers in the monetary policy meeting last week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 24.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 24.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.58 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 24.75 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 24.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.33 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.84 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.91 R2 : 25.88
  • S1 : 24.07 S2 : 23.04

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 24.13 | Take Profit: 25.12 | Stop Loss: 23.54

CRUDE OIL

WTI turns red near $81.50 on the Fed’s hawkish comments, a surprise jump in US crude stockpiles.

WTI trades on a softer note near $81.50 on Thursday. The high-for-longer rate narrative from the Fed boosts the US Dollar. US crude oil inventories rose by 3.165 million barrels for the week ending March 22 from a decline of 1.952 million barrels. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $81.50 on Wednesday. WTI prices edge lower amid the recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and a surprise jump in U.S. crude and gasoline stocks. The hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker early Thursday lifted the Greenback across the board. The Fed Governor Christopher Waller, one of the most hawkish Fed officials, said that the US central bank is not in a hurry to lower the benchmark interest rate and may need to retain the current rate target for longer than previously expected. A firmer USD weighs on WTI prices as it makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening oil demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.2752 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.4368 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.6032 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.6767 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.3277 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.0077 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.4496 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 68.0316 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.05 | Take Profit: 83.28 | Stop Loss: 79.66

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Fall on Oversupply Concerns.

U.S. natural gas futures reached a 3-1/2-year low, influenced by forecasts predicting milder weather and reduced heating demand. The expiry of the April futures contract and decreased gas flows to LNG export plants, notably due to ongoing work at Texas’s Freeport LNG plant, further pressured prices. These developments have led to a significant reduction in weather-driven natural gas demand, potentially extending the current period of price weakness. March saw a decrease in gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states, averaging 100.2 billion cubic feet per day, a drop from February’s 104.1 bcfd. Meteorologists predict mostly colder than normal weather through April 10, but with the approach of warmer weather, gas demand, including exports, is expected to decrease.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6545 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7088 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9111 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6605 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7228 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9027 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.1334 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.3943 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.64 | Take Profit: 1.44 | Stop Loss: 1.81

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.09%) at 2196.35, Silver is down (0.78%) at 24.42, Palladium is up (0.55%) at 993.04, Platinum is up (0.29%) at 896.25, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.43%) at 85.77, WTI Crude Oil up (0.60%) at 81.84 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.1% at 06:00 . (GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.1% at 12:30. (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q4) Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.3% at 12:30. (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 3.2%, Previous 4.9% at 18:00. (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.0% at 18:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 212K, Previous 210K at 18:00. (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 1.4%, Previous –4.9% at 19:30