. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Hits Record High, Silver Surges

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Hits Record High, Silver Surges

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Hits Record High, Silver Surges

20 May 2024

Introduction

Gold prices hit a record high near $2,450, driven by hopes for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. Silver prices also surge, reaching levels not seen since December 2012. Meanwhile, WTI oil gains ground as the PBoC keeps interest rates steady, and natural gas futures jump amid strong LNG export demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price jumps to a record high, rising geopolitical tensions in focus.

Gold price gains ground after reaching a record high on Monday. The hopes for Fed rate cuts and escalating Middle East tensions boost safe-haven assets like gold. The gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum on Monday. The yellow metal hit a record high near $2,450 during the European session on Monday amid renewed hopes for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine also bolstered safe-haven demand, with both nations launching attacks against each other over the weekend. Later on Monday, gold traders will focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson, and Mester speeches, which might offer some insight into the future path of monetary policy. The cautious approach or hawkish comments from Fed officials could limit the precious metal’s upside.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2376.0437 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2352.5489 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2290.1068 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2363.8775 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2340.6351 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2294.5905 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 68.7660 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 99.88 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2412.14 | Take Profit : 2449.50 | Stop Loss : 2394.25

SILVER

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday.

Silver prices rose to $31.6 per ounce, the highest level since December 2012, pushing year-to-date gains to nearly 33%. The rise in silver prices is closely tied to the upward trend in the gold market, amid optimism the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates, with the first reduction seen starting as early as September. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also boosted the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset, after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian died in a helicopter crash. Meanwhile, robust investment and industrial demand have also been weighing on the silver market, as the white metal continues to benefit from its use in solar panels, which is expected to reach a record this year and push the silver market into its fourth consecutive deficit.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 31.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.14 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 28.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 83.37 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.56 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 32.49 R2 : 33.63
  • S1 : 31.27 S2 : 29.79

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 30.75 | Take Profit : 32.26 | Stop Loss : 29.79

CRUDE OIL

WTI extends gains to near $79.70 after PBoC keeps interest rates steady.

WTI Oil price gains ground after PBoC keeps interest rates unchanged on Monday.Oil prices may struggle possibly due to the hawkish remarks from the Fed officials.Crude prices may strengthen due to the optimism for increased demand from the US and China.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues to gain ground after an interest rate decision from China, trading around $79.70 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) steady at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively. However, crude Oil prices may struggle following the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials last week. Furthermore, Fed members Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson, and Mester are scheduled to speak on Monday. On Friday, Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman made headlines by noting that the progress on inflation might not be as steady as many had hoped. Bowman indicated that the decline in inflation observed in the latter half of last year was temporary and that there has been no further progress on inflation this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.4930 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.1500 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.6361 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.0969 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.1793 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.9527 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.0998 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 51.1857 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 79.67 | Take Profit : 78.60 | Stop Loss : 80.00

NATURAL GAS

Traders Bracing for Volatility with Cooler Temps Forecasted.

U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a 16-week high in previous with an increase in the amount of feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to the expected return of Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas to full service after a brief reduction. For the week, gas futures were up about 17% after gaining 5% last week and a record 33% two weeks ago. Those increases have put gas prices into positive territory for the year for the first time since late January. Gas futures are currently up about 4% so far in 2024 after collapsing by 44% last year.Given the current market conditions—reduced storage increases, lower production, and strong LNG exports—natural gas futures are likely to maintain their upward trend in the short term.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.2874 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.1238 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.9787 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.2596 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.0477 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8410 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 78.4124 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 82.00 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.49 | Take Profit : 2.75 | Stop Loss : 2.33

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (1.25%) at 2444.30, Silver up (1.52%) at 31.97, Palladium up (0.9%) at 1017.05, Platinum up (0.4%) at 1084.43, Brent Crude Oil up (0.11%) at 83.99, WTI Crude Oil up (0.08%) at 79.53 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 01:00. (CNY) PBoC Loan Prime Rate (May) Forecast 3.95%, Previous 3.95% at 06:45.