. Daily Commodity Analysis - gold, oil falter, copper soars.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, oil falter, copper soars.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, oil falter, copper soars.

29 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stagnant amid a weaker USD, fueled by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance and an optimistic market sentiment. Despite modest gains in recent sessions, gold struggles within a narrow range during the early European session on Monday. The market observes lingering concerns over inflation from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, influencing the Fed’s rate trajectory. Additionally, geopolitical tensions offer some support, while traders await key US macro data and the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price flat lines amid weaker USD, hawkish Fed expectations, positive risk tone.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two trading days and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the early European session on Monday. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday pointed to still sticky inflation and reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, turns out to be a key factor undermining demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) comes under some renewed selling pressure and hangs near a two-week low touched on Friday amid a sharp recovery in the Japanese Yen (JPY), bolstered by a possible government intervention. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas conflict act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of a two-day FOMC meeting starting on Tuesday and this week’s key US macro data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2338.2884 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2319.4874 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2239.6019 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2348.3566 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2340.0923 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2216.0655 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.6285 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 80.53 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2344.86 | Take Profit: 2373.95 | Stop Loss: 2329.27

COPPER

Copper prices advance, back at 2-year highs on China hopes .

Among industrial metals, copper prices hit two-year highs on Monday as hopes for strong Chinese demand were boosted by Beijing further loosening restrictions on house buying in major cities, to support the property market. China’s property market is a key facet of the economy, and is also a major driver of copper demand in the world’s largest importer of the yellow metal. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $10,015.0 a ton- their highest level since early-May 2022. One-month copper futures rose 0.2% to $4.5962 a pound. Expectations of tighter supplies had been a major boost to copper prices in recent weeks, especially as the West tightened its sanctions on Russian metal exports. Focus was now on key Chinese purchasing managers index data due this week for more cues on the world’s biggest copper importer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.39 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 66.86 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 68.71 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.60 R2 : 4.75
  • S1 : 4.44 S2 : 4.26

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.45 | Take Profit : 4.60 | Stop Loss : 4.35

CRUDE OIL

WTI slides below $83.00 amid demand concerns, supply disruption fears to limit losses.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note and slide below the $83.00/barrel mark during the Asian session. Against the backdrop of receding fears about a further escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, concerns that higher interest rates in the US will dent fuel demand in the world’s top consumer and exert some pressure on the black liquid. The worries were reaffirmed by weaker-than-expected US Q1 GDP growth figures released last week. Furthermore, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of the underlying bullish tone around the US Dollar (USD) and might continue to weigh on Crude Oil prices. Market participants now look forward to Tuesday’s release of official PMI prints from China – the world’s top Oil importer – for a fresh impetus. The focus will then shift to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday and important US macro data, including the NFP report, scheduled at the beginning of a new month.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.5909 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.5728 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.8819 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.3075 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 84.6152 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.7232 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.3123 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.2539 | Neutral Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 83.10 | Take Profit : 81.07 | Stop Loss : 84.77

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Hit Monthly Low as Storage Surges.

U.S. natural gas futures softened , marking a monthly low in early trading. The focus among investors shifted to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, which indicated an unusually large injection into gas storage. As the May natural gas contract approaches expiration, market conditions remain volatile. Despite a stabilization of prices between $1.60 and $2.00 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), several factors such as warmer weather reducing heating demand, and the extended outage at Freeport LNG influencing lower feedgas demand, continue to pressure prices. The market outlook is bearish in the short term, given the higher-than-expected storage levels and subdued demand factors.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7529 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7431 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8159 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7483 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7391 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7349 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.2751 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.01 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.89 | Take Profit : 2.11 | Stop Loss : 1.76

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.2%) at 2338.04, Silver up (0.67%) at 27.37, Palladium up (0.18%) at 955.77, Platinum up (1.18%) at 956.89, Brent Crude Oil down (0.35%) at 87.75, WTI Crude Oil down (0.28%) at 83.42 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 0.6%, Previous 0.4% at 17:30.