. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Oil, Gas, and Corn Insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Oil, Gas, and Corn Insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Oil, Gas, and Corn Insights.

20 Dec 2023

Introduction

“Welcome to today’s market insights, where we delve into the latest movements and trends across key commodities. In this edition, we’ll explore the dynamics shaping the gold market as it holds steady above the $2,000 level amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, we’ll analyze the nuances in the crude oil sector, where prices inch up amidst tensions in the Red Sea. The natural gas landscape is not to be overlooked, with prices slipping against a backdrop of record output and a softer weather outlook. And, of course, we’ll round up the update with a focus on corn, examining the weekly losses and robust export performance. Join us as we navigate through these markets, providing technical overviews and trade suggestions to keep you informed and empowered in the ever-evolving world of commodities.”

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold Prices Hold Steady Above $2,000 Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Gold prices inched up, maintaining their position above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday. The support came from the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the upcoming year. As of 0729 GMT, spot gold rose by 0.1% to $2,042.10 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% at $2,055.90. Market sentiment, however, faces some uncertainty as the Fed appears to be pushing back on rate cuts, with a 75% chance priced in for a March cut. Investors are closely watching the November core PCE index report, a key factor for potential Fed decisions on interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2025.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2016.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1989.53 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2018.43 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2022.92 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1988.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.52 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.13 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2052.82 R2 : 2082.09
  • S1 : 1958.07 S2 : 1928.79

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2044 | Take Profit: 2072 | Stop Loss: 2032

Crude

Oil Prices Inch Up Amid Red Sea Tensions

Oil prices saw a modest increase on Wednesday as attention focused on the Red Sea following recent attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants aligned with Iran. Brent crude futures rose by 0.3% to $79.46 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.4% to $74.24 per barrel by 0730 GMT. The uptick followed a 1% rise on Tuesday, driven by concerns over global trade disruption and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to Houthi attacks. Despite a U.S.-led naval mission, apprehensions persist, prompting major shipping companies to reroute and raising fears of sustained disruptions to global trade. The Houthis have pledged to continue targeting Red Sea shipping. About 12% of world shipping traffic passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. While the impact on oil supply has been limited, the majority of Middle East crude is exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Energy Department announced the purchase of 2.1 million barrels of crude for delivery in February as part of Strategic Petroleum Reserve replenishment. U.S. crude and fuel inventories reportedly rose last week, contrary to expectations, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release official U.S. stock data later on Wednesday. Looking ahead, S&P Global Commodity Insights highlighted that the U.S., producing more oil than any country in history, is set for strong non-OPEC+ supply growth meeting global demand in 2024, with Q4 total liquids production at 21.4 million barrels per day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 72.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 73.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 71.53 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 73.03 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 56.04 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 81.48 R2 : 84.18
  • S1 : 72.74 S2 : 70.04

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 78.14 | Take Profit: 82.58 | Stop Loss: 76.10

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Slip Amid Record Output and Softer Weather Outlook

U.S. natural gas prices dipped on Tuesday due to record output and forecasts of milder weather. The front-month gas futures for January settled 0.4% lower at $2.492 per million British thermal units. The market, in a consolidation phase, is influenced by abundant supply and warmer-than-expected weather. LSEG reported a rise in average gas output, while forecasts indicate a decline in demand for the following week due to the Christmas holiday. Traders remain cautious as temperatures stretch into January, impacting the significance of the supply surplus. Despite geopolitical concerns, disruptions in the Red Sea are not expected to heavily impact crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices. Dutch and British gas prices fell on the back of robust supply and weaker demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.38 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.34 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.46 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.03 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 47.59 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.09 R2 : 3.27
  • S1 : 2.52 S2 : 2.34

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2.3990 | Take Profit: 2.11 | Stop Loss: 2.4566

CORN

Corn Market Recap: Weekly Losses and Strong Export Performance

In Tuesday’s session, the front-month corn market posted losses of 4 ¼ to 5 ¼ cents, resulting in the March contract’s net weekly drop of 10 ¼ cents, approaching its harvest low. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections data revealed a significant uptick, with 947,418 metric tons of corn shipped in the week ending December 14, marking a 31% increase from the previous week and a 15% rise compared to the same week last year. China’s Customs data reported record-breaking corn imports for November, reaching 3.59 million metric tons. Despite the market decline, strong export figures and international demand remain notable factors.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.73 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.73 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.49 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 16.35 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 490 R2 : 512
  • S1 : 470 S2 : 440

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 470 | Take Profit: 440 | Stop Loss : 480

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Brent Oil: $79.78 (+0.55 or +0.69%) Natural Gas: $2.549 (+0.057 or +2.29%) Gold: $2,053.50 (+1.40 or +0.07%) Silver: $24.370 (+0.049 or +0.20%) Copper: $3.9378 (+0.0398 or +1.02%) US Soybeans: $1,319.12 (+6.12 or +0.47%)

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

8:30pm(ist)-USD-CB Consumer Confidence