. Daily Commodity Analysis - gold, oil, investment trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, oil, investment trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, oil, investment trends.

07 Feb 2024

Introduction

Gold prices remain range-bound amid persistent fears of a rate cut. Despite a slight relief as the dollar retreats from three-month highs, uncertainties loom due to diminished expectations of early U.S. interest rate adjustments. Bullion faces pressure from bets on prolonged higher interest rates, influenced by robust U.S. economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve comments. In the commodities market, copper edges lower ahead of crucial cues from China, impacted by concerns over slowing demand. Oil prices rise for the third consecutive day on lower-than-expected U.S. crude stockpiles, contributing to a balanced 2024 outlook. Natural gas futures slide as warmer weather outweighs potential mid-month cold.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices range bound as rate cut fears persist.

Gold prices moved little on Wednesday but saw some relief as the dollar eased from three-month highs, although waning bets on early U.S. interest rate cuts kept the outlook for the yellow metal uncertain. Bullion prices were battered by bets on higher-for-longer interest rates, especially following a slew of strong U.S. economic readings and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields had surged on these signals. While the dollar fell slightly from three-month highs on Wednesday, the greenback was still sitting on strong gains so far in 2024.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2033.6296 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2033.0816 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2024.4301 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2033.5021 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2030.8546 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2034.6432 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.1219 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.6026 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2036.80 | Take Profit: 2057.10 | Stop Loss: 2024.01

COPPER

Copper edges lower before more China cues.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell slightly on Wednesday in anticipation of more economic cues from top importer China. Copper futures expiring in March fell 0.2% to $3.7772 a pound. The red metal was nursing steep losses over the past week following a string of underwhelming purchasing managers index readings from China. Inflation data for January, due on Thursday, is expected to offer more cues on the world’s largest copper importer. Concerns over slowing Chinese demand have been a key weight on copper prices, especially as a post-COVID economic rebound largely failed to materialize.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.77 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.0 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.49 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.79 R2 : 3.83
  • S1 : 3.74 S2 : 3.71

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 3.79 | Take Profit: 3.74 | Stop Loss: 3.82

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil rises on lower-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Oil prices rose for a third day on Wednesday after industry data showing U.S. crude inventories grew less than expected and a cut in the forecast for output growth in the U.S., the world’s biggest producer, eased concerns about potential oversupply. The outlook strengthened the case that the oil market will be balanced in 2024, analysts at Haitong Futures said in a note, adding that they expect oil prices to remain in a $10 range around current levels. Traders have been following the situation in the Middle East, especially attacks on shipping by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the crucial Red Sea that have disrupted traffic through the Suez Canal, the fastest sea route between Asia and Europe and one that carries nearly 12% of global trade.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.3249 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.3626 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.7319 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.3198 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.5645 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.4759 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.6598 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 25.1372 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 78.97 | Take Profit: 76.58 | Stop Loss: 80.82

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Slide as Warmer Weather Trumps Possible Mid-Month Cold; Spot Gas Slips.

Natural gas futures settle just above the key $2 level as warm near-term weather forecasts fuel concerns about inventory surpluses. “March ’24 prices tested $2 several times in recent sessions but are so far holding above it today, albeit barely,” NatGasWeather.com says in a report. “A cold U.S. pattern will be required for much of the 2nd half of February if a sustained weather rally is to be expected.” The next several EIA weekly storage reports are expected to show below-average withdrawals, reversing the recent decline in surpluses.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.2740 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3913 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.5276 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.2624 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.4811 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.5018 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.2523 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 2.5152 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.14 | Take Profit: 1.97 | Stop Loss: 2.84

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.12%) at 2023.89, Silver is up (0.88%) at 22.22, Palladium is down (1.34%) at 936.41, Platinum is down (0.89%) at 897.64, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.28%) at 78.78, WTI Crude Oil up (0.29%) at 73.53 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) Actual 0.4%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous –0.2% at 03:15. (EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) Actual –1.6%, Forecast –0.4%, Previous –0.7% at 12:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 1.700M, Previous 1.234M at 21:00.