. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, oil surge, gas defies.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, oil surge, gas defies.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, oil surge, gas defies.

04 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold consolidates near a two-month high, hovering around $2,088-2,089, as it takes a breather after last week’s robust surge. The US Dollar weakens further due to disappointing ISM survey results and less hawkish Fed comments, boosting gold’s appeal. Meanwhile, copper prices dip ahead of crucial cues from China’s National People’s Congress. WTI oil extends gains to nearly $79.50, supported by OPEC+ decisions, while U.S. natural gas futures defy bearish fundamentals with technical resilience amid a surprising storage withdrawal.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price consolidates near two-month peak, bullish potential seems intact.

Gold price pauses after last week’s strong positive move to a fresh YTD top. Slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart acts as a headwind for the metal. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of this week’s key US data/event risks. Gold price (XAU/USD) is seen oscillating in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday and consolidating last week’s strong gains to the $2,088-2,089 region, or its highest level since December 28. The US Dollar (USD) continues to be undermined by the disappointing release of the US ISM survey on Friday, which showed that manufacturing sector activity contracted more than anticipated in February. Adding to this, the less hawkish remarks by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reinforced bets that the US central bank will start cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2047.1993 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2037.2429 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2028.3821 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2041.3207 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2029.0574 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2034.7265 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 69.9327 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.7922 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2070.07 | Take Profit: 2087.12 | Stop Loss: 2059.54

COPPER

Copper prices creep lower before more China cues.

Among industrial metals, copper futures expiring in May fell 0.4% to $3.8443 a pound, with markets turning cautious towards the red metal ahead of key signals from top importer China. China is set to hold its 2024 National People’s Congress on Tuesday, and will likely roll out more stimulus measures while also providing economic forecasts for 2024. Fears of slowing Chinese demand rattled copper prices over the past two years, as a post-COVID economic recovery in the country failed to materialize. But ANZ analysts said that surging growth in India could help offset a demand slowdown in China. Recent data showed India remaining as the world’s fastest growing economy in 2023, with sustained infrastructure spending in the country likely to drive up copper demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.80 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.78 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 83.31 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.87 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.80 S2 : 3.75

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 3.84 | Take Profit : 3.91 | Stop Loss : 3.81

CRUDE OIL

WTI extends gains to near $79.50 as OPEC+ decided to extend oil output cuts of 2.2M bpd.

WTI price edges higher on extension of oil cuts by OPEC+. OPEC+ decided to extend oil output cuts of 2.2M million bpd into the Q2. Russia’s announced to cut oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 bpd. Iran-led Houthis vowed to continue targeting British ships following the sinking of the UK vessel Rubymar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges higher to near $79.50 per barrel on Monday, following the decision of voluntary oil output cut, made in coordination with some OPEC+ participating countries, including Russia, aiming at addressing concerns about oversupply and stabilizing oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.4898 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.6289 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.4396 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.2388 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.5323 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.2065 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.5159 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.9183 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 79.20 | Take Profit: 82.73 | Stop Loss: 77.25

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Market Balancing Bearish Fundamentals with Technical Resilience.

U.S. natural gas futures rise, bucking low demand trends. Surprising storage withdrawal momentarily boosts market sentiment. Mild winter and stable production lead to high stockpiles. U.S. natural gas futures demonstrated resilience last week despite low demand, influenced by favourable weather conditions and substantial supply. The market appears to be balancing bearish fundamentals against technical trading strategies focused on exploiting oversold conditions. In recent sessions, bearish fundamentals have been weighed against technical traders seeking to benefit from oversold conditions. A notable storage withdrawal, larger than expected, was observed on Thursday, momentarily injecting bullish sentiment.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7972 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8738 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1376 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7761 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8053 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2698 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.1688 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.1805 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy : 1.74 | Take Profit : 2.03 | Stop Loss : 1.57

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.2%) at 2039.78, Silver down (0.59%) at 22.51, Palladium up (0.15%) at 954.57, Platinum down (0.15%) at 884.30, Brent Crude Oil up (0.16%) at 83.23, WTI Crude Oil down (0.18%) at 79.83 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Building Approvals (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 3.8%, Previous –9.5% at 06:00. (USD) FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 21:30.