. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold peaks, WTI drops, USD strengthens.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold peaks, WTI drops, and USD strengthens.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold peaks, WTI drops, and USD strengthens.

08 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold prices continue to hover near record highs, propelled by recent breakout momentum. However, a resilient USD and a prevailing risk-on sentiment limit further upside potential. Meanwhile, copper prices retreat slightly from 15-month highs amid profit-taking, while WTI crude oil faces pressure amid easing Middle East tensions and USD strength post-NFP. Additionally, natural gas futures remain flat to lower amid mild weather and storage outlook considerations.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price stands tall near record high, stronger USD and risk-on cap the upside.

Gold price builds on the recent breakout momentum and touches a fresh record high on Monday. Reduced bets for a June Fed rate cut underpin the USD and might cap gains amid the risk-on mood. Dip-buying should limit any corrective slide ahead of the US CPI and the FOMC minutes this week. Gold price (XAU/USD) climbs to a fresh all-time peak on the first day of a new week and sticks to its intraday gains heading into the European session. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will eventually start cutting rates in 2024, along with buying from the Chinese central bank, have been significant drivers of the precious metal’s blowout rally over the past two weeks or so. That said, a generally positive risk tone, bolstered by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, keeps a lid on any further gains for the safe-haven commodity amid extremely overstretched conditions on the daily chart.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2271.6546 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2225.5117 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2149.2174 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2261.9294 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2214.4524 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2117.8793 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 83.3078 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.2301 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2329.32 | Take Profit: 2349.64 | Stop Loss: 2319.16

COPPER

Copper price edge lower from 15-month highs.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell slightly on Monday, seeing mild profit-taking after surging to 15-month highs last week. Copper was boosted by a string of positive economic readings from top importer China, which showed business activity in the country was picking up. The prospect of tighter refined copper supplies also boosted prices after top Chinese refiners signaled potential production cuts. More economic data from China is due later this week, particularly inflation and trade figures for March.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.21 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.16 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.06 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 71.94 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.05 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.28 R2 : 4.40
  • S1 : 4.17 S2 : 4.07

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 4.12 | Take Profit: 4.27 | Stop Loss: 4.03

CRUDE OIL

WTI bounces off its daily low and keeps the red around $85.00 amid easing geopolitical tensions.

WTI kicks off the new week on a weaker note amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The post-NFP USD buying exerts additional pressure on the commodity and contributes to the fall. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices open with a bearish gap on the first day of a new week and retreat further from over a five-month peak touched on Friday. The commodity, however, trims a part of Asian session losses and currently trades around the $85.00 psychological mark, still in the red for the second successive day. Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza and committed to fresh talks on a potential ceasefire with Hamas, easing concerns about the risk of a further escalation of conflicts and crude supply disruptions from the Middle East. This, along with the upbeat US NFP-inspired US Dollar (USD) strength, prompts some profit-taking around Crude Oil prices, especially after the recent blowout rally witnessed over the past two months or so.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 84.5621 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.9200 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.1637 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 84.2168 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.4481 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.2515 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 65.8680 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 84.8124 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9550 R2 : 85.6263
  • S1 : 78.5443 S2 : 76.8730

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 84.08 | Take Profit: 87.13 | Stop Loss: 82.41

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Flat to Lower Early as Market Mulls Mild Weather, Storage Outlook.

Natural gas futures held steady at the front of the curve as mild shoulder season weather and a somewhat looser-than-expected close to withdrawal season kept the pressure on prices. The U.S. natural gas market last week displayed a surprising resilience, registering a modest uptick in futures despite a complex blend of bearish factors. This gain was chiefly influenced by the projection of continued low output in the coming weeks, as gas rig counts persistently decline. Balancing these supply and demand factors with broader market signals, the short-term outlook for U.S. natural gas prices leans bearish. The combined effect of warmer weather, adequate supply despite decreased production, and global energy trends indicate a potential downward movement in prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6948 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7127 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8706 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6830 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.6876 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8156 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.1443 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 52.6316 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8788 R2 : 1.9739
  • S1 : 1.5709 S2 : 1.4758

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.77 | Take Profit: 1.56 | Stop Loss: 1.92

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.28%) at 2336.20, Silver is up (1.28%) at 27.81, Palladium is up (0.71%) at 1010.41, Platinum is up (1.14%) at 939.75, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.67%) at 90.56, WTI Crude Oil down (0.70%) at 86.29 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) Forecast –0.6%, Previous 1.0% at 11:30. (EUR) German Trade Balance (Feb) Forecast 25.91B, Previous 27.5B at 11:30.