. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold rebounds, Silver bears, Oil rises, Wheat surges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold rebounds, Silver bears, Oil rises, Wheat surges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold rebounds, Silver bears, Oil rises, Wheat surges.

11 Jan 2024

Introduction 

In the global commodities landscape, gold prices stage a recovery in Asian trading, seeking respite after a challenging start to 2024. All eyes are now on forthcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, as investors look for signals regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, silver faces headwinds from rising U.S. bond yields, registering a slightly bearish trend. Oil prices edge higher amidst escalating Middle East tensions, despite concerns over increased U.S. crude stockpiles. Wheat futures also experience a boost following Egypt’s reentry into the global wheat export market. 

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices recovered some lost ground; CPI awaited more rate-cut cues.  

Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday, recovering slightly from a rough start to 2024, with the focus now squarely on upcoming U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates. The yellow metal was still reeling from steep losses over the first week of January, as traders questioned whether the Fed would begin trimming interest rates as soon as March 2024. Markets were now awaiting key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for December, which is due later in the day. Headline CPI inflation is expected to have increased slightly, while core CPI is expected to fall further. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2038.28 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 2038.25 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 2016.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 2042.77 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 2045.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 2016.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.06 | Buy Zone | Bullish 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 79.03 | Buy Zone | Positive 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19 
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55 

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy  

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2029.40 | Take Profit: 2060.72 | Stop Loss: 2013.15 

SILVER

XAG/USD dips on rising US bond yields as technical shift bearish.  

Silver’s decline was influenced by high US bond yields, impacting the metal’s trading direction. Technical analysis indicates a sideways yet slightly bearish trend, with key support levels in focus. Silver price slumps late in the North American session as high US Treasury bond yields hit precious metals prices across the board. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $22.70 a troy ounce, down 0.24%. The silver market is currently facing challenges from a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields. The dollar index has risen by 1.2% this month, and yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have reached 4.0264%, both of which are impacting silver prices. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 23.01 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 23.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 22.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 23.01 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 23.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.26 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.74 | Buy Zone | Positive 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 23.16 R2 : 24.04 
  • S1 : 22.83 S2 : 21.83 

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell  

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 22.66 | Take Profit: 21.83 | Stop Loss: 23.19 

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil inches higher as Middle East tensions heat up.  

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday on concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East with more attacks on Gaza and on shipping in the Red Sea, even as a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles capped gains. The benchmarks settled lower on Wednesday after a surprise jump in U.S. crude stockpiles raised worries about demand in the largest oil market. “The latest EIA data serves as a dampener to the higher-than-expected drawdown in US crude inventories reflected in the API data yesterday, which drove some unwinding of earlier gains. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 77.80 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 79.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 77.29 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 77.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 79.32 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.77 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.25 | Sell Zone | Negative 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82 
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18 

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell  

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 75.97 | Take Profit: 72.52 | Stop Loss: 78.32 

Wheat Futures 

Wheat Futures Higher After Egypt Re-Enters Export Market.  

Wheat for March delivery rose 2.2% to $6.09 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on

Tuesday, climbing in response to Egypt’s re-emergence as a potential importer. The re-entry of Egypt into the world export market for wheat is giving CBOT wheat a boost–even if the chances of U.S. wheat winning some business is seen as slim to none. “Wheat is seemingly trading higher on the Egyptian wheat tender, although the U.S. will not get any of the business,” said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. 

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 593.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 611.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 642.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 592.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 611.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 642.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.5 | Sell Zone | Bearish 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.1 | Sell Zone | Positive 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 602.14 R2 : 627.41 
  • S1 : 589.50 S2 : 571.25 

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell  

Trade Suggestion: Sell Limit: 597.92 | Take Profit: 571.25 | Stop Loss: 617.58 

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.44%) at 2033.01, Silver is up (0.62%) at 23.02, Palladium is up (1.31%) at 1014.86, Platinum is up (1.02%) at 927.77, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.60%) at 77.21, WTI Crude Oil up (0.49%) at 71.69 as of writing time. 

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 210K, Previous 202K at 19:00. (USD) CPI (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 19:00. (USD) CPI (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 19:00.