. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Rises and Copper Gains.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Rises and Copper Gains.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Rises and Copper Gains.

09 Jul 2024

Introduction

Commodity prices react to global events and policy shifts. Gold gains as investors eye potential Fed rate cuts, while copper and oil see mixed signals due to China and hurricane impacts. Natural gas rebounds on hot weather and LNG export recovery.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price jumps ahead of Fed Powell’s testimony.

The Gold price rebounds in Tuesday’s early European session. Rising rates cut expectations and safe-haven flows might cap the precious metal’s downside.Pausing China’s PBoC Gold purchases will likely weigh on XAU/USD in the near term. The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum amid the weaker US Dollar (USD) during the early European session on Tuesday. The downside for the precious metal might be limited as traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in September following soft US employment data last week. Additionally, the cautious mood amid the political uncertainties in France and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Nonetheless, Gold prices might be dragged lower by the People Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision not to buy Gold for a second straight month in June. Gold traders will monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony, along with the speeches from Fed’s Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman. On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will take center stage.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2350.6580 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2342.8622 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2327.3361 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2343.3858 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2334.9092 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2341.6512 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.5521 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.4393 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2367.87 | Take Profit : 2394.85 | Stop Loss : 2350.56

COPPER

Copper prices rise, more China cues awaited .

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose further on Tuesday as they recovered from steep losses in June. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $9,933.50 a tonne, while one-month copper futures rose 0.4% to $4.6245 a pound. Copper traders were focused squarely on more economic cues from top importer China, with trade and inflation figures due later this week. But China was a sore point for copper, as waning optimism over the country sparked steep losses in the red metal through June. Fears of a trade war with the West also kept copper prices relatively subdued.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.424 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.464 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.530 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.434 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.491 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.523 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 33.13 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 6.55 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.45 R2 : 4.67
  • S1 : 4.24 S2 : 4.03

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.431 | Take Profit : 4.206 | Stop Loss : 4.587

CRUDE OIL

WTI depreciates to near $81.50, Saudi expects to rebound Oil exports to China.

The WTI price struggled as Hurricane Beryl caused less damage than anticipated.Saudi Oil exports to China are anticipated to recover in August, potentially reaching a minimum of 44 million barrels.Oil prices face challenges as a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza could alleviate the supply threat.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the third session, trading around $81.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude Oil prices faced pressure after Hurricane Beryl, which struck a key US Oil-producing hub in Texas, caused less damage than anticipated by markets. Despite slowdowns in refining activity and evacuations at production sites, major refineries along the US Gulf Coast reported minimal impact from the hurricane. This decline would be partly influenced by recent developments involving Saudi Arabia. According to Reuters, Saudi crude Oil exports to China are expected to rebound in August, with shipments reaching at least 44 million barrels, which will bolster demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.3530 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.4566 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.4266 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.5743 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.4146 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3114 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.5 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.17 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.23 | Take Profit : 83.19 | Stop Loss : 80.07

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas News: Surprise Technical Bounce as LNG Export Concerns Ease.

Natural gas futures rise in early trading as weather forecasts indicate hotter temperatures and a swift recovery in U.S. LNG exports.Hurricane Beryl’s landfall near Texas causes a dip in LNG exports, but recovery is expected soon, driving up natural gas futures.Hot weather across key U.S. regions and rebounding LNG exports contribute to a bullish outlook for natural gas futures.Coming off eight consecutive lower sessions, the August Nymex contract reversed its early session weakness, potentially setting up for a bullish closing price reversal bottom.Given the forecasted rebound in LNG exports and the continued hot weather in key regions, the natural gas market shows a less-bearish outlook.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4022 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.4866 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4248 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.4007 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.5906 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4723 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.0856 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.3237 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.46 | Take Profit : 2.19 | Stop Loss : 2.67

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.21%) at 2363.10, Silver up (0.78%) at 31.03, Palladium up (0.47%) at 1013.00, Platinum up (0.58%) at 1001.76, Brent Crude Oil down (0.33%) at 85.34, WTI Crude Oil down (0.46%) at 81.87 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 10:00. (NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.50% at 22:00. (NZD) RBNZ Rate Statement at 22:00.