. Daily Forex Analysis - Gold Rises on Weakening Dollar.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Rises on Weakening Dollar.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Rises on Weakening Dollar.

06 May 2024

Introduction

Gold prices surged in Asian trading, buoyed by a weakening dollar and anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts following disappointing U.S. payrolls data. While gold gains were tempered by increased risk appetite favoring stocks, the metal reclaimed ground amid renewed rate cut speculations. Additionally, copper prices climbed towards two-year highs on a weaker dollar, while WTI crude oil broke its losing streak after Saudi Arabia hiked June prices, reflecting expectations of robust summer demand. Natural gas futures also rose, propelled by reduced production and forecasts of rising summer demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices rise tracking dollar weakness as weak payrolls put rate cuts in focus.

Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Monday, capitalizing on a recent drop in the dollar as softer-than-expected U.S. payrolls data saw traders increase bets on eventual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. But gains in gold were held back by improved risk appetite in the wake of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data, as investors pivoted into more risk-exposed assets such as stocks. Gold retakes some ground as rate cut bets reemerge Gains in gold also came after the yellow metal fell sharply from record highs over the past three weeks. Fears of high-for-longer rates and waning safe haven demand were the biggest weights on gold in recent sessions. But the yellow metal took some relief from a drop in the dollar, which lost 0.8% last week. The dollar’s losses were driven chiefly by Friday’s payrolls reading, which sparked increased bets that the Fed will begin cutting rates by September. Focus this week is on a string of addresses from top Fed officials, for more cues on interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2318.1927 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2313.9735 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2251.4193 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2316.6027 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2339.3882 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2243.6875 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.3757 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 86.96 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2307.96 | Take Profit : 2324.27 | Stop Loss : 2303.14

COPPER

Copper prices rise on weaker dollar, in sight of 2-year highs.

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose on Monday, moving back towards two-year highs as metal prices benefited from a weaker dollar. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7% to $9,930.0 a ton, while one-month copper futures rose 0.5% to $4.5888 a pound. Both contracts remained in sight of two-year peaks amid expectations of tighter markets on metal sanctions against Russia, as well as hopes of improving demand in top importer China.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.01 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.43 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.60 R2 : 4.69
  • S1 : 4.50 S2 : 4.38

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.58 | Take Profit : 4.68 | Stop Loss : 4.51

CRUDE OIL

WTI halts losing streak after Saudi Arabia raises Oil prices for June.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price snaps its losing streak, trading around $78.20 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Oil prices increased after Saudi Arabia raised June crude prices for most regions. Saudi Arabia increased the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June, indicating expectations of robust demand during the summer season. Moreover, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are expected to maintain oil production levels for an additional three months when ministers reassess output allocations on June 1. The OPEC+ producers announced last week that they are prepared to prolong voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) beyond June if Oil demand fails to recover as anticipated. On the geopolitical side, the prices of the liquid Gold gained ground due to the concerns about the possibility of a Gaza ceasefire deal being failed. This has renewed supply fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict could escalate further in the Middle East.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.6744 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.7974 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.3798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.2778 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.8457 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.8500 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 36.5654 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.18 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9270 R2 : 87.5646
  • S1 : 80.6256 S2 : 78.9880

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 79.32 | Take Profit : 77.12 | Stop Loss : 81.07

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Mount Win Streak Amid Lower Production, Impending Heat and Short Covering.

Natural gas futures forged in previous session, building on the strong gains of the prior session as production held at lighter levels and forecasters continued to call for a hot summer ahead. The broader economic environment and company-specific strategies also influence the natural gas market. For instance, amidst the current market conditions, companies like APA have adjusted their strategies by planning to invest $2.7 billion in upstream oil and gas for the remainder of the year. This represents an increase from previous plans, suggesting a cautious optimism despite a reduction in output in the first quarter of the year.Looking ahead, while the natural gas market grapples with an oversupply, traders remain watchful for signs that could pivot the market conditions. These include potential increases in LNG exports and shifts in weather conditions that might elevate demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8470 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8020 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8290 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8307 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7789 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7518 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 62.5644 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.4794 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.07 | Take Profit : 2.31 | Stop Loss : 1.93

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.63%) at 2316.86, Silver up (2.00%) at 27.07, Palladium up (0.99%) at 955.82, Platinum up (0.96%) at 965.61, Brent Crude Oil up (0.78%) at 83.61, WTI Crude Oil up (1.16%) at 78.83 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Service PMI (Apr) Forecast 53.5, Previous 50.1 at 13:25. (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 22:30 .