. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Rollercoaster, $2,020 Stability, Oil Plummets Under $73

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Rollercoaster, $2,020 Stability, Oil Plummets Under $73

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Rollercoaster, $2,020 Stability, Oil Plummets Under $73

06 Dec 2023

Introduction

In the dynamic landscape of global financial markets, where every twist and turn holds significance, we find ourselves at the crossroads of economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Today, our focus converges on two pivotal commodities—Gold and Crude Oil—as they chart their courses amidst a sea of influences. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, grapples with a decline amid heightened anticipation of the forthcoming US Jobs Data, a key player in shaping the future trajectory of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Investor caution prevails, and as the metal holds steady at $2,020 per ounce, our gaze is fixed on the intricate dance between market sentiment and economic indicators. On the other side of the spectrum, Crude Oil faces downward pressure, with WTI futures lingering below $73 per barrel. The surge in US crude exports and the aftermath of OPEC+’s output cuts evoke uncertainties about the oil market’s direction. As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak hints at potential production cuts, we delve into the intricacies of a market where speculation and volatility play pivotal roles. Join us as we unravel the technical intricacies of these commodities, examining moving averages, indicators, and support-resistance levels. Our journey also takes a brief detour into the world of Natural Gas, witnessing a rebound after a recent selloff, providing insights into the market’s resilience amidst changing weather patterns. Lastly, our horizon extends to key economic events on today’s calendar, notably the USD’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 6:45 PM (IST). As we embark on this exploration, we invite you to navigate the currents with us, unraveling the complexities that shape the current state of the global market.

Market In Focus Today – GOLD

“Gold Prices Experience Decline Amidst Anticipation of US Jobs Data Impact”

“Gold Holds Steady at $2,020 Amidst Investor Caution Ahead of Key US Jobs Report” On Wednesday, gold maintained its position around $2,020 per ounce, showing resilience after two consecutive sessions of decline. Investors are exercising caution as they eagerly await the release of a crucial US monthly jobs report later this week, hoping for insights into the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that current monetary settings are “well into restrictive territory.” However, he cautioned against premature expectations of policy easing. In a similar vein, European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel noted that the central bank might rule out further rate hikes due to a “remarkable” decrease in inflation. She emphasized that policymakers should avoid guiding for rates to remain steady through mid-2024, according to Reuters. In a separate development, Moody’s downgraded China’s outlook from “stable” to “negative,” citing increased risks associated with sustained lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector. These developments contribute to the complex landscape influencing global markets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2025.24 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2008.01 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1974.94 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2028.30 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1998.72 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1954.00 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.60 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2049 R2 : 2072
  • S1 : 2006 S2 : 1948

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2049 | Take Profit : 2072 | Stop Loss : 2042

Crude

“Oil Prices Continue to Face Downward Pressure”

“WTI Crude Futures Below $73, Near Five-Month Lows Amid Surging US Exports” On Wednesday, WTI crude futures remained below $73 per barrel, close to their lowest levels in five months. The market is grappling with concerns over increased global supply, primarily driven by a surge in US crude exports. Recent data indicates that US crude exports are approaching a record of 6 million barrels per day, with consistent rises in flows to both Europe and Asia. The downward pressure on oil prices has been further intensified since the recent announcement of output cuts by OPEC+. Doubts persist regarding the effectiveness of these cuts in making a substantial impact on the market. In response to the evolving situation, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that OPEC+ is prepared to deepen oil production cuts in the first quarter of 2024. This potential move aims to counteract “speculation and volatility” if the current measures to reduce output prove insufficient. The oil market remains dynamic, influenced by factors ranging from global demand to geopolitical considerations.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 83.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.82 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 85.06 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 36.93 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.01 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 77 R2 : 85
  • S1 : 72.90 S2 : 67.87

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 72.90 | Take Profit : 67.87 | Stop Loss : 74.80

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Natural gas futures move higher after yesterday’s sharp selloff on bearish weather forecasts for the first weeks of December. The January contract settles up 0.6% at $2.710/mmBtu. Several analysts see the market as oversold as winter gets under way with milder-than-usual temperatures curbing demand. “These prices are basically reflective of what we’re experiencing right now,” says John Woods of JJ Woods Associates. But “you’re not going to go into a winter season saying we’re done in December. After a while you say this stuff is getting too cheap and people will come in and buy it,” he adds

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

6:45PM(IST)-USD-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change