. Daily Commodity Analysis - gold, silver, oil insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, silver, oil insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, silver, oil insights.

12 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold price, after a nine-day winning streak to a record peak, faces a slight downtick attributed to profit-taking ahead of the critical US CPI report. Traders lighten bullish positions, awaiting the US consumer inflation figures to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates around $24.50 ahead of the US Inflation data, seeking a fresh trigger for a decisive break above $24.60. Oil prices rise amid ongoing Middle East tensions, but demand concerns cap gains. Corn futures started the week weaker but closed higher, with May up 2 cents, and new crop futures showing fractional to 1 ¼ cent gains.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price remains depressed below an all-time peak, the downside seems limited ahead of US CPI.

Gold price meets with some supply and snaps a nine-day winning streak to a record peak. The downtick could be attributed to some profit-taking ahead of the crucial US CPI report. Bets for a June Fed rate cut to keep the USD bulls on the defensive and should lend support. Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone heading into the European session on Tuesday, albeit lacks follow-through selling and remains well within the striking distance of the record peak touched last week. Traders opt to lighten their bullish bets ahead of the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which will influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decisions and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, growing acceptance that the US central bank will start cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and should act as a tailwind for the commodity.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2133.3657 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2096.6641 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2058.1899 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2124.8325 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2072.2887 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2046.9404 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 81.3044 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.1011 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2169.59 | Take Profit: 2187.38 | Stop Loss: 2159.08

SILVER

XAG/USD is stuck in a tight range around $24.50 ahead of US Inflation.

Silver price consolidates around $24.50 ahead of US Inflation data. The US core CPI is expected to decelerate while the headline inflation might remain sticky. Silver price needs a fresh trigger for a decisive break above $24.60.Silver (XAG/USD) traded in a narrow range around $24.50 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal has struggled to find a direction since Friday’s trading session. The asset is expected to break out of its sideways trend after the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.31 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.53 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.11 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.30 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 67.95 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 68.92 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.46 R2 : 25.11
  • S1 : 24.00 S2 : 23.40

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 24.54 | Take Profit: 25.11 | Stop Loss: 24.25

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil up as Middle East tensions persist, demand concerns cap gains.

Oil prices rose in Tuesday’s trade as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to spur concern, but gains were limited on bearish demand sentiment and as the market waited for monthly reports from oil agencies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil supply to grow to a record high of about 103.8 million barrels per day, almost entirely driven by producers outside OPEC and its allies (OPEC+), including the United States, Brazil, and Guyana. Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports rose in the first two months of the year versus the same period in 2023, but they were weaker than the preceding months, continuing a trend of softening purchases by the world’s biggest buyer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.5498 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.3190 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.5113 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.6327 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.6805 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.7825 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.4842 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.9557 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 82.41 | Take Profit: 83.58 | Stop Loss: 81.75

CORN

Corn Finished Stronger to Start the Week.

Front-month corn futures started the week weaker, but firmed up and closed in the black. May was 1 ¼ cents off the high for the day at the close but was still up 2 cents for the day. New crop futures also went home higher, with fractional to 1 ¼ cent gains. Texas Crop Progress data showed corn planting progressed 6% points to 20% finished. That is 2 points behind the average and down 7% points from last year’s pace. Milo’s planting progressed 9% points to 18% finished – matching the 5-year average. The weekly Export Inspections data showed 1.122 MMT of corn was shipped during the week that ended 3/7. That was 24k MT under last week but was 100k MT more than the same week last year. Total shipments were reported at 21.81 MMT, compared to 16.36 MMT at the same time last year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2321 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2288 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3436 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.2160 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.1772 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3382 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.3146 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.6362 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3863 R2 : 4.5007
  • S1 : 4.0157 S2 : 3.9013

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 476.11 | Take Profit: 492.48 | Stop Loss: 466.39

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.25%) at 2176.64, Silver is down (0.18%) at 24.41, Palladium is down (0.82%) at 1024.57, Platinum is down (0.82%) at 930.28, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.50%) at 82.62, WTI Crude Oil up (0.41%) at 78.25 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jan) Forecast 5.7%, Previous 5.8% at 03:00. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.2% at 03:00. (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 08:30. (USD) CPI (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.3% at 08:30. (USD) CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.1% at 08:30.