. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas in Flux.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas in Flux.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas in Flux.

05 Jan 2024

Introduction:

In the global commodities landscape, gold prices remain within a narrow range above the weekly low, anticipating the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls. Meanwhile, Silver faces challenges with multi-week lows, and Brent Crude Oil sees an uptick amid remarks on inflation and Middle East tensions. Additionally, Natural Gas futures surge on cold weather forecasts and a drop in supply according to the EIA. Here’s a brief overview of the latest developments in these key commodities.

Gold:

Gold prices are consolidating within a tight range, positioned above the weekly low, as the market awaits the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Gold prices persist in their challenge to secure significant upward momentum on Friday, maintaining a narrow trading range below the $2,050 mark as the European session approaches. Traders exhibit hesitation in making bold moves, exercising caution before the release of the US monthly jobs report.

On Thursday, XAU/USD exhibits minimal movement around the $2,040 range, erasing early gains during the American session. The US Dollar faced slight downward pressure late Wednesday, influenced by mixed US data and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. While Chair Jerome Powell mentioned rate cuts were considered during the mid-December Fed meeting, the Minutes offer no indication of when the Fed intends to proceed, suggesting the possibility in 2024.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2044.10| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2058.23| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 2048.55| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2042.74| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2058.21| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 2048.55| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.69| Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator: 12.14| Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2059.56 | R2: 2086.25
  • S1: 2038.68| S2: 1978.34

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.43 | Take Profit: 1978.34 | Stop Loss: 2058.40.

Silver:

XAG/USD hits a multi-week low, displaying vulnerability below the 50% Fibonacci level.

Silver declines for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a nearly three-week low. The technical configuration Favors bearish traders and reinforces the potential for additional losses.

Silver (XAG/USD) continues to experience selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, falling to a nearly three-week low below the mid-$23.00s in the first half of the European session.

The XAG/USD could potentially intensify its decline, extending towards the monthly swing low in December around the mid-$22.00s, and subsequently reaching the support at $22.25 and the psychological level of $22.00.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 23.06 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 23.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 23.84| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 23.00 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 23.60| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 23.84| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.62 | Sell Zone | Negative

Stochastic Oscillator: 23.97| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 23.57 | R2: 24.46
  • S1: 22.90| S2: 21.83

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Sell: 22.68 | Take Profit: 21.83 | Stop Loss: 23.32.

Brent Crude Oil:

Oil prices are higher due to remarks from the Fed regarding inflation and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

On Friday, crude oil prices saw a slight increase following indications from the Federal Reserve meeting minutes that inflation was manageable. Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s imminent visit to the Middle East aimed to prevent the escalation of the Israel-Gaza conflict further contributed to the upward movement.

Both benchmarks, poised to conclude the first week of the year with gains, have almost recovered all the losses incurred on Thursday. During a turbulent session characterized by substantial weekly gasoline and distillate stock increases, prices settled lower.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 77.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 78.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 77.82| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 78.17 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 78.12| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 77.82| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.68 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 67.02| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 79.50 | R2: 84.47
  • S1: 76.32| S2: 72.87

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 80.60 | Take Profit: 84.47 | Stop Loss: 78.39.

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas futures soar on cold weather, EIA supply drop.

U.S. natural gas futures reached a one-month high, driven by reductions in production and forecasts of cold weather, with attention directed toward the forthcoming EIA report.

U.S. natural gas futures are experiencing a notable surge, hitting a one-month peak due to a decline in daily production and projections of colder weather. Anticipated heightened heating demand in the upcoming two weeks is contributing to a roughly 4% increase in futures.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2.778 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2.604 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2.514| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2.801 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2.604| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2.514| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 66.16 |Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 85.14| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2.83 | R2: 3.31
  • S1: 2.49| S2: 2.21

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 2.91 | Take Profit: 3.31 | Stop Loss: 2.67.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Gold is down (0.08%) at 2041.66, Silver is up (0.02%) at 22.99, Palladium is down (0.09%) at 1036.01, Platinum is down (0.39%) at 951.06, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.58%) at 78.06, WTI Crude Oil up (0.78%) at 72.75 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Dec) Forecast 3.0%, Previous 2.4% at 15:30.

(USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 19:00.

(USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) Forecast 170K, Previous 199K at 19:00.

(USD) Unemployment Rate (Dec) Forecast 3.8%. Previous 3.7% at 19:00.

(CAD) Employment Change (Dec) Forecast 13.5K, Previous 24.9K at 19:00.

(USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Forecast 52.6, Previous 52.7 at 20:30.