. Daily Commodity Analysis -Gold, silver soar, oil falters, wheat rises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, silver soar, oil falters, wheat rises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, silver soar, oil falters, wheat rises.

05 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices maintain their firm stance near a multi-month high, spurred by growing expectations of a June Fed rate cut and a cautious global risk sentiment. The precious metal, hovering around $2,120, resists a dip and awaits signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony. Meanwhile, silver follows gold’s surge, encountering resistance at $24.50 and $25.90. In contrast, oil faces a second-day decline as China’s economic reforms fall short of reassuring investors, while the wheat market records double-digit gains on improved fundamentals and weather-related factors.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price holds steady near the multi-month top amid Fed rate-cut bets, a softer risk tone.

Gold price reverses an intraday dip and flirts with a multi-month peak set on Monday. A slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment acts as a tailwind for the commodity. Bets for a June Fed rate cut to keep the USD bulls on the defensive and also lend support. Gold price (XAU/USD) is seen oscillating in a range through the early European session on Tuesday and consolidating its recent strong gains to a three-month top, around the $2,120 area touched the previous day. Traders now seem reluctant and opt to wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets. Hence, the focus will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony starting on Wednesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2065.1092 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2047.8348 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.1608 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2054.0599 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2034.8635 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2036.4005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 77.1008 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 96.6691 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2105.51 | Take Profit: 2120.38 | Stop Loss: 2097.17

SILVER

Silver (XAG/USD) surges, shadowing gold’s rise, with key resistance at $24.50 and $25.90.

Benefiting from Monday’s upswing in gold rates, XAG/USD is experiencing a notable surge today, primarily driven by a sustained breakthrough above the 200-day moving average, positioned at $23.27. This extended trend indicator had been holding back silver prices since January 3. While gold (XAU/USD) approaches an all-time high, silver encounters resistance levels at $24.50 and $25.90.On the flip side, the daily swing high, around the $22.75-$22.80 zone, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $23.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally, though is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $23.20-$22.25 confluence, comprising the 100- and the 200-day SMAs.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 73.91 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.84 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.05 R2 : 24.58
  • S1 : 23.39 S2 : 24.58

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 23.46 | Take Profit: 24.18 | Stop Loss: 23.12

BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil extends fall as China’s economic reforms underwhelm investors.

Oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as pledges by China to transform its economy amid stuttering growth since the COVID pandemic failed to impress investors concerned about slower consumption. The world’s biggest crude importer also pledged to step up the exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources but at the same time vowed to tighten control over fossil fuel consumption.”The market has been moving higher in recent weeks amid improving fundamentals. Rising spot prices indicate the physical market has begun to tighten amid a host of other supply-side disruptions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.7043 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.2313 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.3038 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.8055 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.4446 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.3520 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.7412 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 62.7256 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.8928 R2 : 85.7069
  • S1 : 78.0199 S2 : 76.2058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 82.99 | Take Profit: 85.54 | Stop Loss: 81.57

WHEAT FUTURES

Double Digit Gains for Hard Red Wheats.

The wheat market finished the session with double-digit gains in KC and MGE. KC futures closed near the session high with 1.7% to 3.9% gains. March was back above the $6 mark after a 22 ½ cent gain on Monday. Spring wheat futures are 14 ¾ to 15 ¾ cents stronger for the close. Chicago prices were also in the black on the day, though futures were 4 off the high for 5 ½ to 6 ¼ cent gains. Winter wheat fields in the ECB will get residual moisture from the N.E. coastal snows and the heavy Gulf rains. Southern IL through Southeastern OH are expected to get 2-2 1/2” of rainfall equivalent precip in the updated 7-day QPF from NOAA. Weekly wheat exports were 353,137 MT via the export inspections report. That was down from 482k MT last week and was similar to the volume during the same week last year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 598.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 611.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 642.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 595.98 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 611.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 642.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.5 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.1 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 612.38 R2 : 638.32
  • S1 : 596.06 S2 : 571.34

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 599.61 | Take Profit: 571.94 | Stop Loss: 617.34

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.22%) at 2119.09, Silver is up (0.25%) at 23.93, Palladium is down (1.34%) at 949.14, Platinum is down (0.51%) at 893.00, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.36%) at 82.36, WTI Crude Oil down (0.66%) at 78.22 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 1.6% at 05:00. (GBP) Service PMI (Feb) Forecast 54.3, Previous 54.3 at 15:00. (GBP) Composite PMI (Feb) Forecast 53.3, Previous 52.9 at 15:00. (USD) Service PMI (Feb) Forecast 51.3, Previous 52.5 at 20:15. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 53.0, Previous 53.4 at 20:30.