. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Silver soar, Oil, Gas struggle.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver soar, Oil, Gas struggle.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver soar, Oil, Gas struggle.

01 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price nears record highs as the US PCE data bolsters expectations for a June Fed rate cut. Despite a risk-on sentiment and a slight USD uptick, gold continues its ascent, supported by geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, silver maintains bullish momentum above $25.00, while WTI crude oil advances towards $83.10 amidst expected supply constraints. US natural gas futures, however, post significant losses for the first quarter due to mild weather and reduced demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price stands tall near record high as US PCE data reaffirms June Fed rate cut bets.

Gold price advances to a fresh record peak amid rising bets for a June Fed rate cut. The risk-on mood and a modest USD uptick do little to hinder the strong move up. The overbought RSI on the daily chart warrants some caution for aggressive bulls. Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase during the early European session and oscillates in a narrow band around the $2,260$2,265 region, or a fresh record high touched this Monday. Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates in June and the bets were reaffirmed by the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. This, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the recent conflicts in the Middle East, lend additional support to the safe-haven precious metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2202.6122 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2171.5133 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2114.3107 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2195.1127 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2177.8681 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2089.5923 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 78.5833 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.8200 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2237.39 | Take Profit: 2264.41 | Stop Loss: 2220.95

SILVER

XAG/USD bulls have the upper hand above $25.00, over one-week top.

Silver gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to over a one-week high.Mixed oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution for aggressive bullish traders.Weakness below the $25.00 mark is more likely to get bought into and remain limited.Silver (XAG/USD) builds on last week’s bounce from the $24.35 resistance-turned-support zone and gains positive traction for the third successive day on Monday. The white metal sticks to its intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the $25.15 region, just below a more than one-week top touched earlier today.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.94 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.73 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 25.26 R2 : 25.91
  • S1 : 24.59 S2 : 24.00

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 24.82 | Take Profit: 25.76 | Stop Loss: 24.30

CRUDE OIL

WTI advances to near $83.10 due to expected supply constraints stemming from OPEC+ cuts.

WTI oil price extends its winning streak due to the likelihood of OPEC+ retaining output policies.Ukrainian drone stacks have rendered offline nearly 1 million bpd of Russian Crude processing capacity.Crude oil demand could be enhanced due to the recent expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is on an upward trajectory for the third successive session, with the commodity trading around $83.10 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Monday. The sustained increase in Crude oil prices is attributed to anticipated supply constraints stemming from production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+). Investors are eagerly awaiting the OPEC+’s joint ministerial meeting scheduled for this week. It is anticipated that during the meeting, OPEC+ will assess market fundamentals and members’ adherence to production targets, with widespread expectations for the retention of current output policies.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.8007 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.8025 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.8286 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.0193 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.5597 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.2233 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.6280 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 82.5140 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9550 R2 : 85.6263
  • S1 : 78.5443 S2 : 76.8730

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 82.26 | Take Profit: 85.49 | Stop Loss: 80.33

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Post Big First-Quarter Losses.

U.S. natural gas futures settle higher on a slightly bigger-than-expected 36 Bcf storage draw for last week, but end the first quarter down sharply after an exceptionally mild winter that kept a lid on heating demand and prompted some major producers to cut drilling and output plans. The storage draw “is likely to increase draw sizes for next week’s EIA report, especially with the report seemingly confirming production is as tight as suggested. The U.S. natural gas futures have consistently trended downwards, culminating in losses across weekly, monthly, and quarterly periods. This trend, marked by a 3.82% weekly, 13.32% monthly, and 21.15% quarterly decline, reflects a bearish sentiment rooted in an interplay of demand fluctuations, storage trends, and supply challenges.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6555 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7046 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9016 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6626 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7164 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8857 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.6799 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 16.2608 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8788 R2 : 1.9739
  • S1 : 1.5709 S2 : 1.4758

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.75 | Take Profit : 1.55 | Stop Loss : 1.89

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.81%) at 2251.29, Silver up (0.4%) at 25.08, Palladium up (1.17%) at 1025.82, Platinum up (0.79%) at 912.23, Brent Crude Oil down (0.14%) at 86.90, WTI Crude Oil down (0.07%) at 83.11 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Manufacturing PMI (Mar) Forecast 52.8, Previous 52.2 at 19:15. (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) Forecast –48.5, Previous –52.2 at 19:30.