. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Silver Steady and Oil Slips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver Steady and Oil Slips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver Steady and Oil Slips.

10 Jul 2024

Introduction

Gold prices gain traction ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, supported by rising rate cut bets. Despite the PBoC halting gold purchases, political uncertainties and economic data continue to influence the market. Silver remains steady around $31, oil slips on easing supply concerns, and natural gas futures rise amid hot weather forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price holds positive ground ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s second testimony.

The Gold price gains traction in Wednesday’s early European session. Rising Fed rate cut bets continue to lift the yellow metal. The PBoC refrained from buying gold for a consecutive month, limits XAU/USD upside. The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains on Wednesday during the early European session. The growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to start cutting rates as early as September continues to support the non-yielding metal. Furthermore, political uncertainties within Europe and globally might boost Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. On the other hand, the pause of China’s central bank Gold purchases for a second consecutive month might prompt traders to reduce bullish bets in the yellow metal as China is the world’s largest gold consumer. Investors will keep an eye on the second semi-annual testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, along with speeches by the Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Austan Goolsbee. On Thursday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be closely monitored. This data might offer more clarity on the US interest rate path.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2354.8220 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2345.7958 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2329.1556 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2350.9540 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2337.3733 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2342.7320 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.4341 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 71.5688 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2364.93 | Take Profit : 2406.59 | Stop Loss : 2340.89

SILVER

XAG/USD stays in a tight range around $31 with US Inflation in focus.

Silver price trades sideways around $31.00 as investors await the US Inflation report for June.Fed Powell signaled that the labor market strength appears to be easing.Silver price holds the Falling Channel breakout.Silver price (XAG/USD) trades sideways near $31.00 in Wednesday’s Asian session. The white metal consolidates even though the commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, in his semi-annual Congressional testimony on Tuesday, indicated that risks to the Fed’s dual mandate are finely balanced. Fed Powell acknowledged that labor market conditions are no tighter enough that was experienced after mammoth liquidity infusion in pandemic era. On inflation, Powell commented that the Fed has made some progress in inflation in recent months and more good data would bolster the case for looser monetary policy, Reuters reported.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 30.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 30.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.14 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.05 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.46 R2 : 32.49
  • S1 : 30.24 S2 : 28.96

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 30.74 | Take Profit : 32.08 | Stop Loss : 29.93

CRUDE OIL

Oil slips on easing US Gulf supply concerns, weak China inflation.

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as the impact from Hurricane Beryl dissipated and inflation data highlighted stubbornly weak consumer demand in top crude importer China.Both the contracts lost about 3% in the previous three sessions on signs that the Texas energy industry came off relatively unscathed from Hurricane Beryl after it lashed the region on Monday. Oil and gas companies restarted some operations on Tuesday. Some ports reopened and most producers and facilities were ramping up output, although some facilities sustained damage and power had not been fully restored yet.Concerns over demand in China also weighed on prices as consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy grew for a fifth month in June, but missed expectations, while producer price deflation persisted. Limiting losses in oil prices, however, were comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that suggested the case for interest rate cuts is becoming stronger. Lower interest rates should spur more economic growth, and therefore, oil consumption.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.2157 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.4695 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.4722 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.6461 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.5788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3610 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.0367 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 39.9693 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 80.61 | Take Profit : 83.61 | Stop Loss : 78.75

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas futures rise in early trading as weather forecasts indicate hotter temperatures and a swift recovery in U.S. LNG exports.

August natural gas futures rose in early trading as weather forecasts indicated hotter temperatures and U.S. LNG exports were projected to recover swiftly following a dip due to Hurricane Beryl.Despite the temporary drop in LNG exports due to Hurricane Beryl, they are expected to bounce back quickly. The U.S. production levels are slightly down compared to last week, contributing to the market’s anticipation of a swift recovery.Given the forecasted rebound in LNG exports and the continued hot weather in key regions, the natural gas market shows a less-bearish outlook. The recovery from Hurricane Beryl’s impact, coupled with high temperatures driving demand, suggests that natural gas futures may slow the pace of the recent selling and actually rise in the short term.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.3829 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.4683 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4197 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.3676 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.5606 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4830 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.6948 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 14.1818 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.48 | Take Profit : 2.22 | Stop Loss : 2.68

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.38%) at 2372.64, Silver up (0.64%) at 30.96, Palladium up (0.36%) at 984.01, Platinum up (0.98%) at 991.12, Brent Crude Oil down (0.07%) at 84.89, WTI Crude Oil down (0.05%) at 81.71 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 10:00. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 0.700M, Previous –12.157M at 10:30. (GBP) BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks at 09:30.