. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold, Silver Surge, Oil, Gas Spike.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver Surge, Oil, Gas Spike.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Silver Surge, Oil, Gas Spike.

29 Mar 2024

Introduction

XAU/USD surges to record highs near $2,230, with investors eyeing the US PCE report for further cues. The gold price rally reflects market sentiments favoring potential rate cuts by major central banks in 2024. Investors anticipate three rate reductions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), aligning with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, XAG/USD climbs to $24.70, anticipating insights from the core PCE inflation data on the Fed’s rate cut timing. WTI edges towards $82.80 amid expectations of OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Additionally, Natural Gas rebounds above $1.81, fueled by GDP revisions and an uptick in Jobless Claims.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD reaches to all-time highs near $2,230, US PCE eyed.

Gold price appreciates on market bias towards rate cuts possibility by major central banks in 2024. Investors expect three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months. Investors await the US PCE report to gain additional insight into the Fed’s interest rates trajectory. Gold price appreciates to all-time highs near $2,230 per troy ounce, attempting to continue its winning streak for the fifth successive session on Friday. However, trading volumes are light as market participants are likely observing Good Friday. The glitters of Gold are attracting buyers as market sentiment leans toward major central banks initiating an interest rate-cut cycle this year. Investors are gaining confidence in Gold as they anticipate three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, leaning towards a dovish stance, expects three cuts but emphasizes the need for more evidence of inflation subsiding before implementing any action.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2191.4879 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2162.9702 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2108.6633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2185.8783 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2170.9493 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2084.9629 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 76.1201 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.0927 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2207.07 | Take Profit: 2236.00 | Stop Loss: 2188.86

SILVER

XAG/USD rises to $24.70 ahead of US core PCE Inflation.

Silver price moves higher to $24.70, while the broader trend is sideways. The core PCE inflation will provide cues about the Fed’s rate cut timing. Fed policymakers see three rate cuts by the year-end. Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to $24.70 in the late Asian session on Thursday. The white metal posts gains ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday. Core PCE will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The annual underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%, with monthly growth declining to 0.3% from 0.4% in January. Currently, market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates from the June policy meeting. The expectations also show that there will be three rate cuts by the year-end, as projected by Fed policymakers in the monetary policy meeting last week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.76 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.70 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.72 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 24.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.73 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.95 R2 : 25.72
  • S1 : 24.44 S2 : 23.76

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 25.04 | Take Profit: 25.72 | Stop Loss: 24.59

CRUDE OIL

WTI advances to near $82.80 on the likelihood of OPEC+ maintaining production cuts.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price settled higher at $82.82 per barrel on Thursday. Markets are closed on Good Friday. The rise in Crude oil prices is attributed to the likelihood of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintaining their production cuts. Investors are expected to closely monitor the Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee meeting of the OPEC next week. Despite increased geopolitical risks, which have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, it is unlikely that OPEC+ will change their oil output policies until a full ministerial gathering scheduled for June. Furthermore, Crude oil prices are buoyed by the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, contributing to the sentiment of tightening global Crude supplies.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.5069 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.5582 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.6533 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.8044 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.3915 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.0333 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.5967 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.0422 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 82.12 | Take Profit: 85.13 | Stop Loss: 80.54

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas jumps with GDP revision and an uptick in Jobless Claims supporting demand.

Natural Gas prices turn in the green after a wild ride lower earlier this week. A four-day losing streak gets snapped. The US Dollar Index falls back in the red after printing a fresh March high. Natural Gas (XNG/USD) jumped back above $1.81 and even briefly hit $1.82 in the US data release aftermath. The US numbers with the US Gross Domestic Product and jobless claims, triggered a turnaround in Thursday’s market sentiment. Markets are seeing the final upward revision in GDP and especially in the Personal Consumption Expenditure component which contracted ahead of the PCE numbers on Friday. The DXY US Dollar Index retreated and fell back in the red after breaking a fresh March high. The decline came as well with the US GDP’s upbeat surprise on performance and the contraction of PCE numbers. This pushed back against the hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6650 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7143 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9134 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6663 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7257 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9038 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.8808 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.6248 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.77 | Take Profit: 1.49 | Stop Loss: 1.95

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.06%) at 2233.48, Silver is up (0.12%) at 24.97, Palladium is up (2.67%) at 1014.00, Platinum is up (1.29%) at 905.00, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.05%) at 86.99, WTI Crude Oil up (01.73%) at 83.06 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.8%, Previous 2.3% at 05:20. (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.4% at 18:00. (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:00.