. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold slides, silver rises, oil gains.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold slides, silver rises, oil gains.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold slides, silver rises, oil gains.

07 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold and silver prices slide as investors await US jobs data. After reaching two-week highs, both metals retreat in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will influence the Fed’s rate decisions. Silver finds some support from hopes of a September rate cut, while oil prices climb on the same speculation. Natural gas futures surge due to hot weather forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price declines sharply ahead of US NFP data.

Gold price extends its intraday losses after retreating from a fresh two-week high in Friday’s early European session.Traders prefer to wait for the US NFP report before positioning for the near-term trajectory. Fed rate cut bets are keeping the US bond yields and the USD depressed, lending some support.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias after retracing from fresh two-week highs during the European trading hours on Friday. Investors now opt to move to the sidelines and wait for the release of the closely-watched monthly employment details from the United States (US). The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future policy decisions, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2351.8715 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2350.7991 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2316.1974 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2347.5502 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2361.6689 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2342.9478 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.5167 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.2759 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2358.64 | Take Profit : 2337.65 | Stop Loss : 2387.36

SILVER

XAG/USD rises to near $31.50 due to rising hopes of Fed rate cuts.

Silver price gains ground due to rising speculation of a Fed rate cut in September.Softer US labor data fueled speculation for two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.A Reuters poll has indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists now predict a rate cut in September.Silver price continues to gain ground for the third successive session, trading around $31.50 during the Asian hours on Friday. The appreciation of the grey metal can be attributed to the rising speculation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. This has followed a 25-basis points rate cut implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The non-yielding assets like Silver could gain demand as the lower US labor data fueled hopes for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Traders are likely to await further employment data from the US, including Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls later in the North American session.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.58 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 30.59 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 30.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 30.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 30.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 30.98 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.72 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.15 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.48 R2 : 32.52
  • S1 : 30.11 S2 : 28.75

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 30.41 | Take Profit : 31.57 | Stop Loss : 29.67

CRUDE OIL

WTI extends gains to near $75.50 as sentiment improves on increased Fed rate cut bets.

WTI price gains ground due to rising speculation of a Fed rate cut in September.ECB implemented a 25-basis point rate cut on Thursday.Oil prices appreciate as the lower US employment data spark hopes for two rate cuts by the Fed in 2024.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the third session, trading around $75.50 per barrel during the Asian session on Friday. The appreciation in crude Oil prices can be attributed to rising speculation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, following a 25-basis points rate cut implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The lower employment data from the United States (US) fueled hopes for two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Lower interest rates in the United States (US), the largest Oil consumer country, could stimulate economic activity and boost Oil demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 76.0145 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.2215 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.8977 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 76.5236 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.5386 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.7577 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.5740 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 32.1543 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 76.17 | Take Profit : 73.60 | Stop Loss : 77.66

NATURAL GAS

Futures Surge on Hot Weather Forecasts.

Natural gas futures are trading sharply higher ahead of the U.S. government’s weekly storage report, indicating a bullish market sentiment.Forecasts of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the U.S. drive natural gas demand, with highs reaching the mid-100s in some areas.The rally is largely driven by forecasts predicting strong weather-related demand. Considering the strong weather-driven demand, possibly lingering supply issues in Europe, and increased LNG exports, the short-term outlook for natural gas futures appears bullish.Traders should monitor weather forecasts and storage report outcomes for further market direction.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.5364 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.4405 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2213 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5139 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.4950 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.0850 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 62.7770 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 56.7092 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7525 R2 : 3.0175
  • S1 : 1.8945 S2 : 1.6295

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.74 | Take Profit : 3.05 | Stop Loss : 2.57

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.01%) at 2351.20, Silver down (1.54%) at 30.79, Palladium down (0.36%) at 926.88, Platinum down (0.09%) at 1001.03, Brent Crude Oil down (0.46%) at 79.59, WTI Crude Oil down (0.38%) at 75.30 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.0% at 14:30. (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2% at 18:00. (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (May) Forecast 182K, Previous 175K at 18:00. (USD) Unemployment Rate (May) Forecast 3.9%, Previous 3.9% at 18:00. (CAD) Employment Change (May) Forecast 24.8K, Previous 90.4K at 18:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 1