. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold soars, copper climbs, oil fluctuates.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold soars, copper climbs, and oil fluctuates.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold soars, copper climbs, and oil fluctuates.

07 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold price maintains its position near an all-time high, spurred by expectations of a June Fed rate cut and a weakened US Dollar. The safe-haven commodity continues its seven-day rally amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over China’s economic situation. Copper sees a 0.3% rise, supported by positive Chinese trade data, while WTI oil hovers around $78.50 after recent gains fueled by a smaller-than-expected increase in US crude stockpiles. Corn futures experience slight weakness midweek as traders await the WASDE report for insights into U.S. corn stocks and global carryout.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price stands tall near an all-time high on June Fed rate cut bets, softer risk tone.

Gold price rallied to a record peak on Thursday amid bets for a June Fed rate cut. The USD languishes near a month low and further lends support to the XAU/USD. A softer risk tone also benefits the safe-haven commodity, despite overbought RSI. Gold price (XAU/USD) gains strong positive traction for the seventh straight day on Thursday and sticks to its intraday gains, near the record high during the early European session. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in June keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and turns out to be a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, a generally softer tone, persistent geopolitical tensions, and China’s economic woes lend additional support to the safe-haven commodity.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2095.3119 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2067.5965 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2042.6822 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2080.4909 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2047.1487 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2039.8277 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 81.9475 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.1954 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2124.38 | Take Profit: 2152.21 | Stop Loss: 2107.69

COPPER

Copper buoyed by positive Chinese data.

Among industrial metals, copper futures rose 0.3% to $3.8817 a pound, taking support chiefly from stronger-than-expected trade data from China. The world’s biggest copper importer clocked a stronger-than-expected trade surplus for the first two months of 2024, on an outsized rise in exports. But a key point of support for copper was a bigger-than-expected increase in Chinese imports. Specifically, Chinese imports of red metal grew 2.6% year-on-year in the Jan-Feb period, pointing to sustained demand despite fairly muted business activity.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.83 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.79 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.04 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.89 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.83 S2 : 3.75

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.87 | Take Profit: 3.95 | Stop Loss: 3.82

CRUDE OIL

WTI hovers around $78.50 after recent gains on US Crude Oil Stocks Change.

WTI price retreats after posting recent gains on downbeat US Crude stockpiles.US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change built by 1.367 million barrels, lower than the expected 2.116 million barrels. Saudi Arabia decided to raise prices of its primary grade for Asian buyers. Chinese Trade Balance USD rose to $125.16B in February, from $75.34B prior. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower to near $78.50 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, Crude oil prices surged on Wednesday after US oil stockpiles rose less than expected for the week ending on March 1 Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that Crude Oil Stocks Change rose for a sixth week in a row, building by 1.367 million barrels against the expected 2.116 million barrels and 4.199 million barrels prior.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.5016 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.8382 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.6593 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.3844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.0862 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.4530 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.5086 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 57.7120 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 78.35 | Take Profit: 81.20 | Stop Loss: 76.80

CORN

Fractionally Weaker Corn Market.

Midweek corn futures remain within their tight range after a drop at the day session’s opening. Futures are currently fractionally weaker for the midday prints. May prices have so far seen a 5 ¼ cent range on the day. Deliveries from the CME confirmed another 30 contracts issued via StoneX and stopped by ABN. That brought the March total to 245 contracts, with the oldest remaining long at 2/27. The weekly EIA data showed output drew back 21k barrels per day to 1.057 million during the week ending 3/1. Ethanol stocks grew by 29k barrels to 26.051 million. Traders are looking for the WASDE report to show a 17.2 mbu cut to U.S. corn stocks on average. Brazilian production is expected to come down by 1.6 MMT and the trade is looking for world carryout to tighten by 1.2 MMT.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.1676 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.1991 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3471 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.1432 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.1729 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3616 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.0327 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.8505 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3863 R2 : 4.5007
  • S1 : 4.0157 S2 : 3.9013

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 479.82 | Take Profit: 459.87 | Stop Loss: 492.17

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.43%) at 2157.22, Silver is down (0.01%) at 24.15, Palladium is down (0.73%) at 1039.28, Platinum is up (0.37%) at 910.34, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.34%) at 82.67, WTI Crude Oil down (0.30%) at 78.91 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) Forecast 4.50%, Previous 4.50% at 08:15. (ECB) ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 08:15. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 217K, Previous 215K at 08:30. (EUR) ECB Press Conference at 08:45. (ECB) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:00.