. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Soars, Oil Rockets, Silver Plummets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Soars, Oil Rockets, Silver Plummets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Soars, Oil Rockets, Silver Plummets.

02 Jan 2024

Introduction:

In the commodities market, Gold remains buoyant amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic challenges in China. Meanwhile, Brent Crude Oil surges post-Red Sea clashes. Additionally, a Reuters survey suggests a modest rise in Brent crude prices, while silver faces a sharp decline and copper sees slight gains on positive demand sentiments.

Gold:

The price of gold is upheld by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic challenges in China.

Gold price recovers and halts its correction from a multi-week high. Support for XAU/USD persists due to dovish Fed expectations and geopolitical risks. Increasing US bond yields bolster the US Dollar, potentially limiting additional gains.

On the initial trading day of 2024, gold price (XAU/USD) draws in new buyers and sustains a positive tone during the early European session. Currently trading around the $2,075 mark, it has risen by over 0.50% for the day. The precious metal continues to enjoy strong support, driven by increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might initiate interest rate cuts as early as March.

In addition to geopolitical uncertainties and worries about a delicate economic rebound in China, these factors contribute some backing to the non-interest-bearing gold.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2069.55| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2066.29| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2038.17| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2067.39| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2066.30| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2038.17| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.75| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 31.05| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2079.76 | R2: 2129.00
  • S1: 2048.10| S2: 2008.24

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2084.45 | Take Profit: 2129.00 | Stop Loss: 2059.83.

Brent Crude Oil:

Crude oil prices surge following the successful repulsion of Houthis by U.S. forces in the Red Sea.

In the inaugural session of the New Year, oil prices experienced an increase, propelled by the potential for disruptions in Middle East supply following a naval altercation in the Red Sea. Additionally, optimism surrounding robust holiday demand and economic stimulus measures in China, the leading crude importer, contributed to the uptick.

According to a Reuters survey of economists and analysts, it is anticipated that Brent crude will have an average of $82.56 per barrel for the current year. This projection is slightly above the 2023 average of $82.17, with expectations of subdued global growth restraining demand. However, potential support may come from geopolitical tensions.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 78.06 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 79.00 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 77.46| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 77.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 79.00| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 77.46| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.09 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 27.23| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 79.21 | R2: 84.49
  • S1: 79.46| S2: 72.68

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 80.16 | Take Profit: 84.49 | Stop Loss: 77.80.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

The price of silver experiences a significant decline following the breakdown of a Rising Channel chart pattern. Within the realm of industrial metals, copper prices experienced a marginal increase on Tuesday, driven by positive sentiments surrounding heightened demand and a more constrained copper market in 2024.

Gold is up (0.51%) at 2073.29, Silver is up (1.08%) at 24.03, Palladium is up (0.58%) at 1105.51, Platinum is up (0.59%) at 993.02, Brent Crude Oil up (1.90%) at 78.49, WTI Crude Oil up (1.74%) at 72.86 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Actual 50.8, Forecast 50.4, Previous 50.7 at 07:15.

(EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Forecast 43.1, Previous 42.6 at 15:30.

(GBP) Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Forecast 46.4, Previous 47.2 at 15:00.

(USD) Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Forecast 48.2, Previous 49.4 at 20:15.