. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Steady and Silver Dips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Steady and Silver Dips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Steady and Silver Dips.

04 Jul 2024

Introduction

Gold prices are steady after reaching a 10-day high, while silver dips due to ceasefire hopes in Gaza. Oil prices see modest decline on demand concerns, but geopolitical tensions offer some support. Natural gas futures extend their decline on rising production and cooler weather forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices steady at 10-day high as rate cut bets grow.

Gold prices steadied at a 10-day high in Asian trade on Thursday after growing bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve pulled down the dollar and Treasury yields. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild positive bias during the early European trading hours on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains below a nearly two-week high touched the previous day. The underlying strong bullish sentiment across the global equity markets is seen acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal amid relatively thin liquidity on the back of the Independence Day holiday in the US. Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2335.8637 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2333.5526 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2321.8972 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2329.5731 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2325.3748 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2338.6049 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 55.3412 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 70.3228 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2372.1823 R2 : 2395.9711
  • S1 : 2295.1711 S2 : 2271.3823

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2339.46 | Take Profit : 2378.43 | Stop Loss : 2313.49

SILVER

XAG/USD breaks below $30.50 due to a quest for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Silver prices depreciate due to increased optimism following renewed efforts to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza.Mediators from Egypt and Qatar have conveyed Hamas’s response to a proposal involving the release of hostages held in Gaza.XAG/USD may limit its downside as the US Dollar may struggle due to rising expectations of the Fed reducing rates in 2024.Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its five-day winning streak, trading around $30.40 per troy ounce during the European session on Thursday. The decline in the safe-haven metal’s price is attributed to increased optimism following signs of renewed efforts to secure a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, as reported by Reuters.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.94 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 29.41 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 29.48 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.79 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 94.63 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.79 R2 : 32.19
  • S1 : 29.49 S2 : 27.94

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 29.75 | Take Profit : 31.53 | Stop Loss : 28.68

CRUDE OIL

WTI trades with modest losses below $83.00 mark, downside potential seems limited.

WTI attracts some sellers on Thursday amid concerns about slowing global fuel demand. Escalating geopolitical tensions fuels supply concerns and lends support to the commodity.September Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD and further help limit losses for Oil prices.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices tick lower during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit lack follow-through selling and remain well within the striking distance of the highest level since April 26 touched earlier this week. The commodity, meanwhile, remains confined in a three-day-old trading band and is currently placed just below the $83.00 round-figure mark. The US data released on Wednesday pointed to signs of weakness in the labor market and some cooling in the economy. This comes on top of China’s economic woes and adds to concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth. This, in turn, is anticipated to dent long-term fuel demand and is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on Crude Oil prices. That said, persistent supply risk stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East should act as a tailwind for the black liquid.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 82.2119 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 81.0545 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.1423 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 82.0757 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.5935 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3073 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.8351 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.0794 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 82.7869 R2 : 85.2028
  • S1 : 74.9658 S2 : 72.5499

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 82.31 | Take Profit : 84.34 | Stop Loss : 81.06

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas futures decline this week, pressured by rising production and cooler mid-July forecasts.

Natural gas futures have been on a downward trend this week, pressured by rising production and cooler mid-July forecasts. These factors are contributing to a loosening of market fundamentals, with production climbing above 102 Bcf/d, signaling ample supply. Additionally, the market is in a position to post its seventh straight losing session.In response to the market conditions, hedge funds and money managers have slightly reduced their bullish positions, selling the equivalent of 79 billion cubic feet in major futures and options contracts. The market weakness is primarily driven by overproduction, with rising production levels above 102 Bcf/d outpacing demand and leading to a supply glut.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4985 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.5583 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4433 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.5424 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6781 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4424 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 39.4918 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 4.6683 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.8694 R2 : 3.0200
  • S1 : 2.3820 S2 : 2.2314

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.52 | Take Profit : 2.31 | Stop Loss : 2.67

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.2%) at 2357.94, Silver down (0.33%) at 30.37, Palladium down (0.18%) at 1023.17, Platinum up (1.33%) at 1010.08, Brent Crude Oil down (0.11%) at 86.93, WTI Crude Oil down (0.18%) at 83.42 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) CPI (MoM) (Jun) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.3% at 02:30. (GBP) UK General Election at 06:00. (EUR) ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting at 07:30.