. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Struggles, Silver Rises, WTI Steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Struggles, Silver Rises, WTI Steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Struggles, Silver Rises, WTI Steady.

12 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold prices struggle to attract buyers as traders await crucial US CPI data and the Fed’s policy decision. Gold (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias despite recent modest gains, as market participants look for cues on the Fed’s rate-cut timing. Meanwhile, silver prices edge higher, and WTI hovers around $78.00, bolstered by optimistic global demand forecasts from the EIA.

Markets In Focus Today – Gold

Gold price fails to attract buyers as traders await US CPI and Fed decision.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest gains registered over the past two days and trades with a negative bias during the early European session on Wednesday. The downtick, however, lacks follow-through as traders keenly await the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from the United States (US) and the outcome of the highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this Wednesday. This should provide fresh cues about the timing when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates, which will determine the near-term trajectory for the non-yielding yellow metal.Heading into the key data/event risks, investors have been scaling back their bets for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September amid a strong US labor market and sticky inflation. This assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall near a one-month peak and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the Gold price. The downside, however, seems cushioned in the wake of renewed political uncertainty in Europe and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2329.0802 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2337.2649 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2313.9896 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2331.2406 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2351.9504 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2344.0714 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 45.8448 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.0776 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2324.85 | Take Profit : 2284.26 | Stop Loss : 2355.70

SILVER

$30.0 appears a tough nut to crack for XAG/USD.

Silver price edges higher near $29.40 Wednesday’s Asian session, up 0.40% on the day. The negative stance of Silver remains intact below the 100-period EMA, with a bearish RSI indicator. The crucial resistance level is seen at the $30.0 psychological mark; the initial support level is located at $29.04. The Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers to $29.40 on Wednesday despite the stronger Greenback. However, the upside for white metal might be limited by the speculation of delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The market could turn cautious later in the day ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Fed interest rate decision.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.77 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 12.3 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.02 R2 : 31.45
  • S1 : 28.27 S2 : 26.88

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 29.77 | Take Profit : 28.34 | Stop Loss : 30.77

CRUDE OIL

WTI hovers around $78.00 after EIA’s forecast of optimistic global demand.

WTI may appreciate as the US Energy Information Administration anticipates optimistic global demand.EIA increased world Oil demand growth forecast to 1.10 million barrels per day in 2024.Oil prices struggled due to the Fed’s hawkish stance on monetary policy.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price hovers around $77.90 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices may rise due to optimistic global demand forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). According to Reuters, the EIA increased its 2024 world Oil demand growth forecast to 1.10 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its 2024 forecast for robust growth in global Oil demand, citing expectations for increased travel and tourism in the second half of the year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.0926 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.5239 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.8396 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 76.2335 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.4722 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.3600 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.6920 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.5252 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 78.14 | Take Profit : 80.58 | Stop Loss : 76.82

NATURAL GAS

Volatility Ahead as Supply/Demand Battle Heats Up.

Natural gas futures rise as traders recover losses from Monday’s bearish reversal. Market stays above 200-day moving average, indicating buyer strength.Hot weather across the U.S. expected to drive natural gas demand higher. Midwest to Northeast remains cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to 80s.Producers are ramping up production following a significant price surge in April and May.Europe on track to refill natural gas storage ahead of winter. LNG imports compensate for reduced Russian supplies, with storage levels at 71%. Given the combination of rising temperatures and potential supply increases, natural gas futures are expected to face resistance at higher levels.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7255 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.5742 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3045 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.6466 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6007 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1582 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 68.6773 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.0598 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.95 | Take Profit : 3.29 | Stop Loss : 2.75

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.15%) at 2312.63, Silver up (0.29%) at 29.33, Palladium up (0.05%) at 888.43, Platinum down (0.12%) at 952.96, Brent Crude Oil up (0.6%) at 82.62, WTI Crude Oil up (0.68%) at 78.65 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) GDP (YoY) (Apr) Forecast 0.6%, Previous 0.7%% at 11:30. (GBP) Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Apr) Forecast 0.7%, Previous 0.6% at 11:30. (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 0.0% Previous 0.4% at 11:30. (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.3% at 11:30. (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00. (USD) CPI (YoY) (May) Forecast 3.4%, Previous 3.4% at 18:00. (USD) CPI (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00. (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.50% at 23:30. (USD) FOMC Statement at 23:30.