. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold Surges to Two-Week High.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Surges to Two-Week High.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold Surges to Two-Week High.

06 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold surges to a two-week high as hopes for a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar collide. Copper rebounds modestly, but worries linger. Oil prices climb on speculation of a September Fed cut, despite a surprise inventory build. Natural gas futures seek stability after recent volatility.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price jumps to two-week high on Fed rate cut hopes, softer US Dollar.

Gold price advances to a two-week top amid the emergence of fresh USD selling. Rising Fed rate cut bets keep the US bond yields depressed and weigh on the buck.Traders look to the US jobless claims for some impetus ahead of the NFP on Friday. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day and climbs to a two-week top, around the $2,375 area during the European session on Thursday. Moreover, the near-term bias remains tilted in favor of bulls in the wake of bets that major central banks will lower borrowing costs to bolster economic activity. In fact, the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in four years, from a more than two-decade high and signaled concern about slowing economic growth. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to cut interest rates for the first time since March 2016 at the end of its June policy meeting later today.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2350.0886 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2349.7201 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2314.3362 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2344.6932 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2361.5639 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2340.3710 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.4092 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 94.89 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2350.83 | Take Profit : 2396.29 | Stop Loss : 2324.85

COPPER

Copper prices rebound from 1-mth low, but sentiment remains fragile.

Among industrial metals, copper prices rebounded from a one-month low on Thursday, taking some support from a softer dollar. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.5% to $10,074.50 a tonne, while one-month copper futures rose 0.5% to $4.6490 a pound. But sentiment towards the red metal remained weak, especially as optimism over an economic recovery in top importer China waned in recent weeks. Key trade data from China is due on Friday and is likely to offer more cues.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.80 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 44.96 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 94.89 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.74 R2 : 4.92
  • S1 : 4.54 S2 : 4.37

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.72 | Take Profit : 4.53 | Stop Loss : 4.87

CRUDE OIL

WTI rises toward $74.50 due to rising speculation of a Fed rate cut in September.

WTI price appreciates as US mixed data fuel rate cut speculations by the Fed.A Reuters poll has indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists now predict an interest rate cut in September.EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change increased by 1.233 million barrels in the previous week, contrasting with the expected 2.300 million-barrel draw.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the second session, trading around $74.30 per barrel during the Asian session on Thursday. The appreciation in crude Oil prices could be attributed to the rising speculation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing in the United States, the largest Oil consumer. This can incentivize economic activity and potentially boost Oil demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 75.9888 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.3271 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.0048 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 76.6670 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.6303 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 80.8936 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 37.3849 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 56.79 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 75.79 | Take Profit : 73.30 | Stop Loss : 77.58

NATURAL GAS

Futures Traders Seek Stability Amid Market Volatility.

U.S. natural gas futures are attempting to recover after a sharp decline . The futures market is expected to remain rangebound unless there are significant shifts in weather forecasts or production levels. This effort follows a period of heightened volatility due to recent supply disruptions and fluctuating demand projections. This volatility is attributed to improved supply conditions, including a swift resolution to a Louisiana pipeline outage and increased gas production in the Lower 48 states. Given the current conditions, the U.S. natural gas market is expected to remain in a rangebound state. However, should weather forecasts predict sustained higher temperatures or if production levels experience significant disruptions, a bullish trend could emerge.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.4945 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.4098 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2003 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.4879 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.4636 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.0629 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.9777 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 90.43 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7525 R2 : 3.0175
  • S1 : 1.8945 S2 : 1.6295

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2.78 | Take Profit : 3.06 | Stop Loss : 2.62

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.02%) at 2361.24, Silver up (0.81%) at 30.26, Palladium up (0.62%) at 937.26, Platinum up (0.54%) at 996.95, Brent Crude Oil up (0.33%) at 78.85, WTI Crude Oil up (0.41%) at 74.54 as of writing time

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Construction PMI (May) Forecast 52.5, Previous 53.0 at 14:00. (EUR) ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) Forecast 4.25% Previous 4.50% at 17:45. (EUR) Deposit Facility Rate (Jun) Forecast 3.75%, Previous 4.00% at 17:45. (EUR) ECB Marginal Lending Facility Previous 4.75% at 17:45. (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 17:45. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 220K, Previous 219K at 18:00. (CAD) Ivey PMI (May) Forecast 65.2, Previous 63.0 at 19:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:45.