. Daily Commodity Analysis - gold up, copper down, oil plunges, gas falters.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold up, copper down, oil plunges, gas falters.

Daily Commodity Analysis – gold up, copper down, oil plunges, gas falters.

11 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold prices stabilize just below record highs in Asian trading, with a keen focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts. Last week’s surge in gold prices followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on nearing comfortable inflation levels. However, gold’s consolidation continues amid overbought conditions and anticipation of Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Meanwhile, copper prices remain range-bound, reflecting mixed signals from China, while WTI crude oil falls to $77.00 due to concerns over declining Chinese oil imports. U.S. natural gas futures decline with a fifth consecutive below-average draw and low demand projections.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold prices are steady with $2,200 in sight; CPI awaited more rate cues.

Gold prices steadied just below record highs in Asian trade on Monday, with the focus turning largely to upcoming U.S. inflation data for more cues on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. Expectations of rate cuts saw bullion prices rise sharply to record highs last week, especially as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation was close to reaching levels the Fed was comfortable with. Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its consolidative price move heading into the European session on Monday and remains below the record peak touched on Friday. Bulls now seem reluctant to place fresh bets around the precious metal amid extremely overbought conditions on the daily chart and ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday. The crucial CPI report will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path, which will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2123.0776 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2087.8895 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2053.2076 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2109.7869 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2062.9104 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2044.5060 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 83.6057 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.7783 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2171.17 | Take Profit: 2187.10 | Stop Loss: 2163.20

COPPER

Copper prices range bound amid mixed China data.

Among industrial metals, copper futures expiring in May steadied at $3.8957 a pound on Monday, tracking middling economic signals from top importer China. Data released last week showed China’s copper imports rose during the first two months of the year. But their pace of growth remained languid, especially as factory activity in the country remained on the back foot. This notion was furthered by inflation data released over the weekend. While consumer inflation grew slightly more than expected, producer inflation pushed further into deflationary territory, indicating that factory activity, a key driver of Chinese copper demand, remained depressed.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.65 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 28.69 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.88 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.83 S2 : 3.75

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.87 | Take Profit: 3.95 | Stop Loss: 3.83

CRUDE OIL

WTI falls to $77.00 on falling Chinese oil imports-led demand concerns.

WTI price extends its losing streak on demand concern following Chinese oil import data. China’s oil imports fell to 10.8 million bpd in the first two months of the year, compared to 11.44 million bpd in December. Crude oil prices could find support from a weakening US Dollar amid growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in June. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price has continued to decline for the third consecutive session, driven by data indicating a decrease in oil imports in China. Imports fell around 5.7% to 10.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first two months of the year, compared to 11.44 million bpd in December. The WTI price trades around $77.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. Furthermore, the market is adopting a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index data from the United States (US) scheduled for Tuesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.3909 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.9028 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.7788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.6158 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.2365 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 75.7150 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.4924 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 52.3410 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 78.27 | Take Profit: 80.89 | Stop Loss: 77.19

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Growing Storage Surplus.

Natural gas futures lose ground after the EIA reports a fifth consecutive below-average draw from underground storage, while weather forecasts point to low demand that’s likely to swell inventory surpluses into the end of the heating season. Natural gas storage decreased by 40 Bcf last week to 2,334 Bcf, which is 31% more than the five-year average. Natural gas futures lose ground after the EIA reports a fifth consecutive below-average draw from underground storage, while weather forecasts point to low demand that’s likely to swell inventory surpluses into the end of the heating season. Natural gas storage decreased by 40 Bcf last week to 2,334 Bcf, which is 31% more than the five-year average.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8126 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.8564 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0827 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8260 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2099 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.2662 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 47.6949 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.76 | Take Profit: 1.53 | Stop Loss: 1.95

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.03%) at 2179.40, Silver is down (0.04%) at 24.30, Palladium is up (0.01%) at 1021.33, Platinum is up (0.99%) at 914.00, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.13%) at 81.97, WTI Crude Oil down (0.26%) at 77.83 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Building Approvals (MoM) Forecast –1.0%, Previous –10.1% at 20:30.