. Daily Commodity Analysis - Gold's Surge, Gas Slumps Amidst Weather.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold’s Surge, Gas Slumps Amidst Weather.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold’s Surge, Gas Slumps Amidst Weather.

05 Dec 2023

Introduction

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, the intricate dance of commodities captures the attention of traders and investors alike. In this snapshot of the current market dynamics, we delve into the recent movements in gold, natural gas, and oil. From the resilience of the gold market amid geopolitical tensions to the nuanced fluctuations in natural gas futures influenced by weather forecasts, and the subtle balance in oil prices teetering between demand worries and geopolitical uncertainties, our exploration spans the spectrum of commodities. Additionally, we highlight key technical indicators and trade suggestions, providing a comprehensive overview for those navigating these dynamic markets. Join us on this journey through the intricacies of the commodities market, where each twist and turn tells a tale of economic forces, global events, and investor sentiment.

Market In Focus Today – GOLD

“Bullish Momentum: Positive Projections for Gold in 2024”

“Gold Market Recovers After Volatile Trading Day: Bullish Trends and Key Levels in Focus After a remarkable 5.42% round trip in yesterday’s trading, the price of gold saw significant fluctuations. Surpassing the prior swing all-time high at $2081, gold later retraced its gains, ending the day lower. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered overbought territory but has since recovered, underscoring the substantial volatility witnessed. Today’s trading has been more measured, with gold currently below the $2050 level. However, the uptrend remains robust and comfortably above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Gold bulls seem to be in control, especially as US yields peaked, and markets factor in potential interest rate cuts in 2024. Lower interest rates typically diminish the value of the dollar, offering a relative discount for foreign buyers of the dollar-denominated commodity. The appeal of gold as a safe haven persists, given ongoing tensions as Israel continues its aggression on Hamas targets following the end of the ceasefire. Support is identified at $2010, with immediate resistance at $2050, followed by the previous high at $2081.80.”

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2025.28 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2006.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1972.96 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2024.94 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1995.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1951.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.51 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 58.24 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2043 R2 : 2072
  • S1 : 2030 S2 : 2006

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2044 | Take Profit : 2072 | Stop Loss : 2038

Natural Gas

“Natural Gas Futures Decline Amid Persistent Mild Weather Forecasts”

“Natural Gas Futures Hit Lowest Level Since September Due to Mild Weather Forecasts Natural gas futures have settled at their lowest level since late September, influenced by ongoing forecasts indicating a milder-than-normal start to December. This has constrained demand, particularly as U.S. production reaches near-record highs. Despite icy weather conditions in Europe and Asia, the impact on the market is limited, as Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group notes, stating, ‘because we’re already maxed out on the LNG exports.’ However, he adds a caveat, suggesting that if cold weather were to hit the U.S., it could potentially alter the dynamics of the market. For January delivery, natural gas settled down 4.3% or 12 cents at $2.694/mmBtu, albeit above the intraday low of $2.649/mmBtu.”

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.80 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.91 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 34.08 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.84 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.09 R2 : 3.27
  • S1 : 2.63 S2 : 2.49

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.63 | Take Profit : 2.49 | Stop Loss : 2.73

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

“Oil Prices Inch Up Amid Demand Worries, Market Skepticism Over OPEC+ Output Cuts, and Middle East Tensions Oil prices have experienced a modest uptick by 0.9%, with both Brent and WTI reaching $78.74 per barrel and $73.72 per barrel, respectively. Concerns over demand, coupled with market skepticism following OPEC+’s output cuts announcement, contributed to a decline in previous trading sessions. Traders were disappointed by the voluntary curbs decision, leading to uncertainties about compliance and future supply policies. Tensions in the Middle East, including the Israel-Hamas conflict and attacks in Middle-Eastern waters, have added to supply concerns. Additionally, a drop in U.S. factory orders in October has heightened investor fears of a broader economic slowdown. The market is navigating a complex landscape influenced by both geopolitical events and economic indicators.”

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

8:30PM(IST)-USD-JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Services PMI