. Daily Commodity Analysis - Latest on Gold, Silver, Crude, Gas.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Latest on Gold, Silver, Crude, Gas.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Latest on Gold, Silver, Crude, Gas.

08 Mar 2024

Introduction

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its rally, surpassing $2,160, fueled by a weaker US Dollar and dovish comments from central bank policymakers. As safe-haven flows boost gold demand, traders await Eurozone GDP Q4 data and US February labor market figures, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) shines above $24.00, supported by a soft US Dollar, with technical indicators signaling a bullish trend. WTI crude oil recovers to $78.80 amid a weaker USD and anticipation of a Fed rate cut, while US natural gas futures fall due to growing storage surpluses and below-average draws.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD extends the rally above $2,160, investors await US NFP data.

Gold price gains momentum around $2,165 amid the softer US Dollar, adding 0.12% on the day. The dovish comments from central bank policymakers and safe-haven flows boost the demand for gold. Gold traders await the Eurozone GDP Q4 growth numbers and US February labor market data. Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside around $2,165 after reaching a record high during the early European session on Friday. A weaker US Dollar (USD) and a decline in US Treasury bond yields provide some support to the gold price. Furthermore, the rising expectation for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the June meeting boosts the demand for gold price. Gold traders will closely watch the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (GDP). On the US docket, the February labor market data, including Nonfarm-Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings will be released. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the gold price.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2108.4120 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2077.1165 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2047.5842 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2093.7249 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2054.3295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2041.9295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 82.8069 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 97.3536 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2133.72 | Take Profit: 2161.17 | Stop Loss: 2117.12

SILVER

XAG/USD shines above $24.00 fueled by the soft US Dollar.

Silver’s nearly 1% gain drives it to around $24.40, as the market bets on a June Federal Reserve rate cut. Technical indicators are bullish as silver surpasses 50, 100, and 200-day DMAs, eyeing December highs. Despite the bullish trend, potential pullback risks exist if silver dips below $24.50, with supports at $24.00 and $23.57.Silver price advanced during Thursday’s session gaining almost 1% and staying above the $24.00 figure as investors expect a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Therefore, XAG/USD exchanges hands at $24.40.The dollar’s sharp weekly drop enhances gold’s appeal, impacting silver and copper forecasts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.72 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2313 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 73.64 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 83.41 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.51 R2 : 25.39
  • S1 : 23.86 S2 : 23.28

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 24.70 | Take Profit: 25.39 | Stop Loss: 24.33

CRUDE OIL

WTI recovers to $78.80 amid the softer US Dollar, and all eyes are on US NFP data.

WTI trades in positive territory near $78.80, gaining 0.51% in Friday’s Asian session. The prospect of a rate cut from the Fed, and a smaller-than-expected US crude oil inventory boosts black gold. Oil traders await the revision of the Eurozone Q4 GDP growth number and US labor market data. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.80 on Friday. WTI prices edge higher amid the weaker US Dollar (USD) and the prospect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates this year. On Thursday, the Chinese Import and Export data for February came in better than expected, indicating a positive signal about the recovery in the second-largest world economies. This, in turn, provides some support to the WTI prices as China is the world’s largest crude oil buyer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.8371 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.0817 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.8070 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.7743 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.2823 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.6215 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.1047 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.9404 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 80.36 | Take Profit: 83.67 | Stop Loss: 78.57

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall on Growing Storage Surplus.

Natural gas futures lose ground after the EIA reports a fifth consecutive below-average draw from underground storage, while weather forecasts point to low demand that’s likely to swell inventory surpluses into the end of the heating season. Natural gas storage decreased by 40 Bcf last week to 2,334 Bcf, which is 31% more than the five-year average. U.S. natural gas futures move lower after the EIA reports a fifth straight below-average weekly draw on inventories, but the reaction is tempered by already bearish expectations. The EIA says natural gas in underground storage decreased by 40 billion cubic feet to 2,334 Bcf in the week ended March 1. That left stocks 280 Bcf or 13.6% higher than a year before, and 551 Bcf or 30.9% above the five-year average for the week. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey predicted on average a weekly draw of 48 Bcf.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8154 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.8623 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0942 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8175 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7655 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2231 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.8907 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 58.2033 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.76 | Take Profit: 1.50 | Stop Loss: 1.96

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.25%) at 2165.15, Silver is up (0.68%) at 24.47, Palladium is up (0.09%) at 1039.75, Platinum is up (0.33%) at 919.50, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.58%) at 83.73, WTI Crude Oil up (1.19%) at 79.89 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) GDP (QOQ) (Q4) Actual 0.0%, Previous –0.1% at 05:00. (USD) Average Hourly Index (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.6% at 08:30. (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) Forecast 198K, Previous 353K at 08:30. (USD) Unemployment Rate (Feb) Forecast 3.7%, Previous 3.7% at 08:30. (CAD) Employment Change (Feb) Forecast 21.1K, Previous 37.3K at 08:30.