. Daily Commodity Analysis - Market dynamics drive gold, copper, oil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Market dynamics drive gold, copper, oil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Market dynamics drive gold, copper, oil.

10 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold Price (XAU/USD) gains traction above $2,350 in early Wednesday trading, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, heightened Middle East tensions, and central bank purchases. Investors eagerly await US CPI data, with geopolitical tensions adding to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, copper sits at a 15-month high on optimistic demand outlooks, particularly driven by cues from China, the world’s leading copper importer. WTI struggles around $84.60 amid larger-than-expected US crude inventories, awaiting direction from Gaza ceasefire talks and US CPI data.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains momentum above $2,350, investors await US CPI data.

Gold Price trades in positive territory around $2,355 in Wednesday’s early European session. The expectation of rate cuts from Fed, rising Middle East tensions and central bank purchases might lift the gold price. Gold traders await the US CPI inflation data for March and the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Gold Price (XAU/USD) extends its upside near $2,355 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the expectation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday, Israeli foreign minister Israel Kat warned that Israel will retaliate if Iran attacks from its territory. Earlier, Iran’s supreme leader said Israel “must be punished” for an apparent attack on an Iranian consulate building in Syria last week, which killed two of its senior military commanders, per Sky News. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2299.2514 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2249.0584 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2165.0742 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2295.7539 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2233.4037 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2130.5818 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 84.8151 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.7475 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2354.86 | Take Profit : 2363.63 | Stop Loss : 2349.50

COPPER

Copper sits at 15-mth peak, more China cues awaited .

Both contracts sat at 15-month highs, as markets bet on an improved outlook for copper demand amid growing conviction that a decline in global manufacturing had bottomed out. Chinese copper supply is also expected to tighten as several top refiners flagged production cuts in the coming months. More economic cues from China- which is the world’s biggest copper importer- are also due later this week. Inflation and trade data are due on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.21 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.11 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 71.12 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 62.89 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.32 R2 : 4.45
  • S1 : 4.17 S2 : 4.03

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 4.18 | Take Profit : 4.32 | Stop Loss : 4.11

CRUDE OIL

WTI drifts lower to $84.70, eyes on Gaza ceasefire talks, US CPI data.

WTI extends its downside near $84.60 on Wednesday.The bigger-than-expected build in US crude inventories weighs on the black gold. The uncertainty over Gaza ceasefire talks and ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the downside of WTI. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $84.60 on Wednesday. The black gold trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day amid the US crude stock build and profit-taking ahead of the release of the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the FOMC Minutes, due later on Wednesday. The recent US employment report last week has triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay interest rate cuts this year. Investors will closely watch the US CPI inflation data for March, as it could offer some insights about the inflation trajectory and the path of the Fed’s monetary policy. The firmer-than-expected outcome might lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated WTI price.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 84.9714 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.4519 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.6038 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 85.0759 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 83.2326 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.5933 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 64.6561 | Buy Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.4295 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9550 R2 : 85.6263
  • S1 : 78.5443 S2 : 76.8730

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 84.29 | Take Profit : 87.62 | Stop Loss : 82.55

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas News: Higher Amid European Price Surge, Weather, Production Cuts.

U.S. natural gas futures are trading higher for a second session with traders eyeing higher prices in Europe. Concurrently, the U.S. weather forecast predicts mixed demand influences in the upcoming period. Following a drop to the lowest gas prices in over three years, the U.S. observes a reduction in its natural gas output, particularly in the Haynesville shale region. This scale-back in drilling aligns with changes in solar energy production, suggesting possible short-lived increases in gas demand. The near-term outlook for the U.S. natural gas market leans towards a cautious bullish stance. Factors such as marginally rising demand, decreased production, and the interplay of global LNG markets suggest a potential for stable or slightly increased prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7468 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7387 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8697 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7232 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7027 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7996 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.0885 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 90.3864 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8788 R2 : 1.9739
  • S1 : 1.5709 S2 : 1.4758

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.87 | Take Profit : 2.02 | Stop Loss : 1.81

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.08%) at 2354.04, Silver up (0.15%) at 28.16, Palladium down (0.66%) at 1086.33, Platinum down (0.18%) at 977.41, Brent Crude Oil up (0.35%) at 89.73, WTI Crude Oil up (0.45%) at 85.61 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Rate Statement at 07:30. (USD) CPI (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 3.4%, Previous 3.2% at 18:00. (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 18:00. (USD) CPI (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 18:00. (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.00%, Previous 5.00% at 19:25. (CAD) BoC Monetary Policy Report at 19:15. (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes at 23:30.