. Daily Commodity Analysis - Markets active, gold, silver steady, oil uncertain.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Markets active, gold, silver steady, oil uncertain.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Markets active, gold, silver steady, oil uncertain.

25 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains modest gains ahead of US GDP data, supported by a weak US Dollar and a subdued equities market. While hovering around $2,300, gold awaits further cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting stance. Eyes remain fixed on US GDP figures, likely to shape the USD’s trajectory and provide fresh impetus to XAU/USD. Meanwhile, Silver Price (XAG/USD) finds footing near $27 amidst a softer USD backdrop.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price sticks to modest intraday gains ahead of US GDP, upside potential seems limited.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buying in the vicinity of the $2,300 mark and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session on Thursday. This marks the first day of a positive move in four and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, which tends to benefit the commodity. Apart from this, a mildly softer tone around the equity markets is seen as another factor lending some support to the safe-haven precious metal. The upside for the Gold price, however, seems limited as investors might prefer to wait for more clarity about the likely timing when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the key US macro data – the Advance Q1 GDP report due later today and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2337.7471 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2315.0195 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2231.2534 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2352.9252 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2330.3398 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2203.0876 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.9425 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 29.1368 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2329.82 | Take Profit : 2364.48 | Stop Loss : 2307.08

SILVER

XAG/USD finds support near $27 as US Dollar edges down ahead of US data.

Silver Price (XAG/USD) finds interim support near $27 in Thursday’s European session after facing a sharp sell-off in the past week. The white metal discovers some buying interest as the US Dollar edges down. The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrects to near 105.60 after the S&P Global United States preliminary PMI for April reported that the inflow of new business fell for the first time in six months, which raised doubts over a strong economic outlook. However, the broader-term outlook of the US Dollar has not faded yet as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have been emphasizing maintaining the current policy framework for a longer period, considering strong labour demand and stubbornly higher inflation data. Going forward, the US Dollar will be tested on the grounds of Q1 preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.5%, at a slower pace than the 3.5% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 27.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.21 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 27.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 44.7 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.42 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.08 R2 : 29.18
  • S1 : 26.93 S2 : 25.64

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 27.78 | Take Profit : 26.57 | Stop Loss : 28.66

CRUDE OIL

WTI loses traction below $82.50, concerns over Middle East fade.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.45 on Thursday. The black gold edges lower as the fear over wider conflict in the Middle East fades. Additionally, the hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve (Fed) boosts the US dollar (USD) and caps the upside of black gold. Perceived de-escalation between Iran and Israel, and the flow of oil from the Middle East, which has not been interrupted by conflict in the region, dragged the WTI prices lower in the last few sessions. However, any sign of rising tensions in the Middle East and stricter sanctions against Iran might cap the downside of the WTI price. Furthermore, the growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed will delay the interest rate provides some support to the Greenback and acts as a headwind for the black gold price. It’s worth noting that a strong dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Several US Fed officials noted that rate cuts aren’t coming in the coming months as inflation remains stickier than expected.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 83.4423 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.4892 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.7064 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.6012 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.5678 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.5082 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.5417 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.3429 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 82.50 | Take Profit : 80.17 | Stop Loss : 84.23

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Traders Reaction to 50-Day Moving Average Sets the Tone.

U.S. natural gas futures faced a slight decline on Wednesday, following an unsuccessful attempt to breach the 50-day moving average during the previous session. This technical indicator has been a key resistance level, indicating a possible trigger for an upside breakout in the near future.Natural gas prices showed resilience, bouncing back from initial losses earlier in the session. This rebound was primarily fueled by an increase in U.S. LNG exports and significant pipeline maintenance activities, which led to lower gas production estimates.In the short term, the market might experience some volatility as it adjusts to fluctuating demand and supply trends.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7562 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7425 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8218 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7349 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7328 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7312 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.6389 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 66.4912 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.92 | Take Profit : 2.20 | Stop Loss : 1.76

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.49%) at 2326.10, Silver up (0.96%) at 27.40, Palladium up (0.45%) at 1005.52, Platinum up (0.78%) at 909.57, Brent Crude Oil down (1.15%) at 87.03, WTI Crude Oil up (0.07%) at 82.78 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 214K, Previous 212K at 18:00. (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 3.4% at 18:00. (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 1.6% at 19:30.