. Daily Commodity Analysis - Monitor oil, gas, gold, silver.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Monitor oil, gas, gold, silver.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Monitor oil, gas, gold, silver.

16 Feb 2024

Introduction

Oil prices paused after the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a forecast indicating slowing demand, contrasting with the optimism sparked by weak U.S. retail sales data hinting at potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The IEA’s report projects a slight reduction in global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook. Natural gas prices reach a new trend low of 1.57, reflecting prolonged bearish sentiment. Gold prices hover around $2,000 following weak U.S. retail sales, still facing weekly losses. Silver experiences a 2.50% surge as lower US bond yields increase its appeal.

Markets In Focus Today – Brent Crude Oil

Oil flat as weaker IEA outlook weighs on US rate cut hopes.

Oil prices stalled on Friday over a forecast of slowing demand by the International Energy Agency after gaining in the previous session on weak U.S. retail sales data that sparked optimism that the Fed might cut interest rates sooner than expected. Both contracts climbed over 1% on Thursday as a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales prompted hopes the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates, which could be positive for oil demand. The IEA’s monthly report said it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, slightly down from last month’s estimate. OPEC on Tuesday stuck to its much steeper growth forecast of 2.25 million bpd.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.5247 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.8005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.3363 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.0777 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.9204 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.9141 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.6771 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.6559 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 81.09 | Take Profit: 83.43 | Stop Loss: 79.91

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Hits 1.57, Lowest in Trend.

Natural gas price hits a new trend low of 1.57, marking the eighth day of continuous decline, indicating prolonged bearish sentiment. The sellers remain in control of the price of natural gas as it hits a new trend low of 1.57, for the eighth consecutive day of lower daily highs and lower lows. Despite signs of strength seen earlier in Thursday’s trading session it continues to trade near the lows of the day, at the time of this writing. A daily close below yesterday’s low of 1.59 will indicate more weakness than a close above yesterday’s low. Nevertheless, natural gas remains in an aggressive decline following a drop to a new trend low last Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8657 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.0707 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3422 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8936 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.1212 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3959 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 21.1947 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 1.5058 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.73 | Take Profit: 1.55 | Stop Loss: 1.84

GOLD

Gold prices retake $2,000 after weak retail sales, weekly losses still on tap.

Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday after retaking a key level as weak U.S. retail sales data spurred some doubts over when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. Bullion prices rose back above the $2,000 an ounce level on Thursday after breaking well below the level earlier in the week. Some safe-haven demand- following data showing recessions in Japan and the UK- also aided gold prices. But despite seeing some relief, the yellow metal was still set for steep weekly losses as traders largely scaled back expectations for early rate cuts, especially following hotter-than-expected consumer price index inflation data earlier this week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2013.2632 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2020.6732 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2020.8390 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2016.8037 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2023.6653 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2031.8551 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.4781 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 19.5494 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
  • S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2007.54 | Take Profit: 2030.33 | Stop Loss: 1992.34

SILVER

XAG/USD rallies toward $23.00 shy of 100-DMA.

Silver jumps over 2.50%, as lower US bond yields boost appeal. Potential ‘morning star’ formation hints at the upside if silver surpasses the $22.94 mark. Resistance at $23.08-$23.13 and support at $22.45 and $22.00 are critical for the next moves. Silver price surged sharply in Thursday’s session after hitting a daily low of $22.35, as US Treasury bond yields plunged, a tailwind for the Grey metal. The XAG/USD trades at $22.92, up by more than 2.50%, with traders eyeing a break of stir resistance.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.67 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.02 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100.00 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.20 R2 : 23.79
  • S1 : 22.48 S2 : 21.91

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 22.77 | Take Profit: 23.37 | Stop Loss: 22.43

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.02%) at 2003.96, Silver is up (0.21%) at 22.95, Palladium is down (0.22%) at 950.18, Platinum is up (0.14%) at 897.27, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.41%) at 82.50, WTI Crude Oil down (0.29%) at 77.80 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 1.5%, Previous –3.2% at 02:00. (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.7%, Previous 0.9% at 08:30. (USD) Building Permits (Jan) Forecast 1.509M, Previous 1.493M at 08:30. (USD) PPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.1%, Previous –0.1% at 08:30.