. Daily Commodity Analysis - Natural Gas Defies Slump, Surges 5.4% Amid Silver Rally.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Natural Gas Defies Slump, Surges 5.4% Amid Silver Rally.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Natural Gas Defies Slump, Surges 5.4% Amid Silver Rally.

14 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the commodity market, Natural Gas experienced a resurgence, climbing 5.4% to $3.197/MMBtu as colder weather prospects boosted demand. However, the abundance of supply, highlighted by well-stocked storage levels and high US production, tempered the rally. In contrast, Silver rebounded, surpassing $22.00 after a decline influenced by signals of increased interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Oil prices rose with optimism about market fundamentals, while Gold faced a decline in Asian trade ahead of U.S. inflation data.

Natural Gas:

Natural gas rallies on prospects of cold weather.

Breaking a five-session decline, natural gas futures rebounded as the December contract closed 5.4% higher at $3.197/MMBtu. Anticipations of colder weather in the northern and western US prompted early short covering. However, ample supply, marked by well-stocked US and European storage levels and near-record-high US production, serves as a counteracting factor, as noted by Dennis Kissler at BOK Financial.

The immediate-month contract experienced an increase of 18-19 cents, reaching $3.21/MMBtu in morning trading, as per intraday trading data from CME Group. However, it later eased back and settled at $3.19/MMBtu in the afternoon.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 3.165| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.166| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 3.215| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 3.174| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.133| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 3.311| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.51| Buying Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 94.56| Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 3.228 | R2: 3.465
  • S1: 3.042| S2: 2.855

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 3.299 | Take Profit: 3.465 | Stop Loss: 3.191.

Silver:

XAG/USD rebounds from a 7- 7-week high, back above $22.00.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) experienced a significant decline, approaching the $22.00 mark, as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues indicated a leaning towards further interest rate hikes to move monetary policy towards a more restrictive stance.

Silver prices bounce back, hovering around $22.40 per ounce, reflecting a 0.27% increase following a dip to five-week lows at $21.88.

Recovering from its recent dip to five-week lows at $21.88 on Monday, the silver price ascended and is currently trading around $22.40 per troy ounce in the late North American session. This reflects a gain of 0.27% as of the current writing.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 22.23 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 22.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 22.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 22.32 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 22.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 22.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.02 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 79.91| Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 22.51 | R2: 23.30
  • S1: 21.83| S2: 21.01

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion:  Limit Sell: 22.55 | Take Profit: 21.86 | Stop Loss: 23.04.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday amid anticipations of robust market fundamentals. Gold prices dipped below critical levels during Asian trading on Tuesday as traders shifted towards the dollar in anticipation of U.S. inflation data scheduled for later in the day.

Gold up (0.07%) at 1947.28, Silver up (0.61%) at 22.43, Palladium up (0.34%) at 987.88, Platinum up (1.09%) at 873.42, Brent Crude Oil up (0.22%) at 82.71, WTI Crude Oil up (0.24%) at 78.37 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q3) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.5% at 15:30

(USD) CPI (MoM) (Oct) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.4% at 19:00

(USD) CPI (YoY) (Oct) Forecast 3.3%, Previous 0.3% at 19:00

(USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 19:00