. Daily Commodity Analysis - Natural Gas Soars, Silver Faces $25 Hurdle.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Natural Gas Soars, Silver Faces $25 Hurdle.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Natural Gas Soars, Silver Faces $25 Hurdle.

29 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the commodities market, Natural Gas Futures show signs of short-term recovery, with open interest and volume increasing. Meanwhile, Silver experiences a pause in bullish momentum below $25.00, and gold faces challenges in sustaining intraday gains amid a modest USD rebound. Oil sees a slight uptick, with investors cautious ahead of a crucial OPEC+ meeting.

Natural Gas:

There is potential for additional short-term recovery in Natural Gas Futures.

Analysing recent data from CME Group on natural gas futures markets, open interest displayed volatility, rising by approximately 13.6K contracts on Tuesday. Volume mirrored this trend, increasing for the second consecutive session, this time by about 21.7K contracts.

The notable price rebound in natural gas on Tuesday coincided with a rise in both open interest and volume, suggesting the potential for a continued short-term recovery. In line with this perspective, the commodity is anticipated to encounter the next resistance around the weekly high of $3.275 per MMBtu (November 15).

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2.819| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2.896| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 2.993| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2.835| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 2.886| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 2.996| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.73| Selling Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 5.05| Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2.970 | R2: 3.212
  • S1: 2.773| S2: 2.461

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell 2.670 | Take Profit: 2.461 | Stop Loss: 2.806.

Silver:

Bullish momentum in XAG/USD pauses as attempts to surpass $25.00 prove unsuccessful.

Silver prices surge over 1.10% on Tuesday, fuelled by dovish remarks from the Fed. Buyers maintain control but need to reclaim $25.00 to test year-to-date (YTD) levels.

Silver prices reached three-month highs just below the $25.00 mark before pulling back to the $24.80s following dovish comments from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official that weakened the US Dollar. Currently, XAG/USD is trading at $24.88, marking a gain of over 1%.

XAG/USD has continued its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive session, yet it fell short of surpassing the $25.00 level, a breakthrough that could potentially propel it towards the July 19 high at $25.23.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 24.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 24.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 23.79| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 24.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 24.25| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 23.52| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 72.04 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 90.99| Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 25.00 | R2: 25.97
  • S1: 24.11| S2: 23.27

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 25.24 | Take Profit: 25.97 | Stop Loss: 24.87.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Gold prices struggle to maintain intraday gains and reach a multi-month high as the US Dollar experiences a modest rebound. Oil saw a slight increase on Wednesday as investors exercised caution in anticipation of a pivotal OPEC+ meeting to determine output policies for the upcoming months.

Gold up (0.11%) at 2043.25, Silver down (0.19%) at 24.96, Palladium down (0.53%) at 1048.40, Platinum down (0.1%) at 938.66, Brent Crude Oil up (0.38%) at 81.80, WTI Crude Oil up (0.54%) at 76.82 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.50%, Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.50% at 06:30.

(NZD) RBNZ Press Conference at 07:30.

(EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Nov) Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.0% at 18:30.

(USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Forecast 4.9%, Previous 2.1% at 19:00.

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:35.