. Daily Commodity Analysis - Navigate market with gold, silver, oil insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Navigate market with gold, silver, oil insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Navigate market with gold, silver, oil insights.

05 Apr 2024

Introduction

Gold price steadies amid modest USD strength ahead of NFP. XAU/USD maintained its downward trajectory on Friday amidst a resilient US Dollar, reinforced by hawkish Fed remarks. Traders await the NFP report for insights into the Fed’s rate-cut path, potentially impacting gold’s direction. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions sustain support for safe-haven assets like gold. In parallel, Silver (XAG/USD) retreats from recent highs, awaiting NFP data release. Additionally, WTI crude oil rises on escalating geopolitical tensions, while natural gas remains flat ahead of the EIA storage report amidst varied weather conditions.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price pares intraday losses, and keeps the red amid modest USD strength ahead of NFP.

Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower for the second straight day on Friday and maintains its offered tone through the early part of the European session. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight recovery from a nearly two-week low and remains well supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which, in turn, undermines the commodity. Apart from this, the downfall could further be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the release of the US monthly employment details. The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked upon for fresh cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding Gold price. In the meantime, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and the risk of a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven XAU/USD. This should limit any meaningful corrective slide from the all-time peak.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2250.0150 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2210.0233 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2140.0021 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2241.3751 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2204.7213 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2111.0058 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 78.6356 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.2832 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2285.29 | Take Profit: 2303.40 | Stop Loss: 2275.46

SILVER

XAG/USD finds support near $26.60 after a sharp correction ahead of US NFP.

Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers support near $26.60 after a pullback from a more than two-year high of $27.34. The white metal takes a breather after a strong rally as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. According to the expectations, fresh payrolls were 200K, lower than the former reading of 275K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come out steady at 3.9%. Investors will also focus on the Average Hourly Earnings data, which will provide a fresh inflation outlook. The monthly wage growth is forecasted to have grown at a higher pace of 0.3% from 0.1% in February. In the same period, the annual wage growth is estimated to have dipped to 4.1% against 4.3%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 26.50 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 26.03 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 25.33 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 26.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 25.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 25.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 70.16 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 46.01 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 27.29 R2 : 28.02
  • S1 : 26.44 S2 : 25.76

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 26.14 | Take Profit: 27.17 | Stop Loss: 25.61

CRUDE OIL

WTI rises to nearly $86.20 on reports of threats against the Israeli embassy.

WTI price appreciated after Iran vowed retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s embassy.NATO officials said that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries may have disrupted over 15% of capacity.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price seems to extend its winning streak that began on March 27, buoyed by escalating geopolitical tensions and the looming possibility of disruptions in oil supply. WTI crude oil is currently trading around $86.20 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Friday.The rise in Crude oil prices is attributed to the potential threat of supply disruptions amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly after Israel attacked Iran’s embassy in Syria. However, Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack on Iran’s embassy compound in Syria on Monday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 84.2913 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.6169 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.9332 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 83.7202 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 82.0468 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.0964 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 70.9489 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.9133 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9550 R2 : 85.6263
  • S1 : 78.5443 S2 : 76.8730

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 85.56 | Take Profit: 89.15 | Stop Loss: 83.50

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Flat Movement as Traders Eye EIA Weekly Storage Report.

The U.S. natural gas market is nearly flat as traders await the latest government storage report. Key factors influencing this trend include varying weather conditions and expected storage changes. The anticipated storage report, projecting a decrease of 38 to 43 billion cubic feet (Bcf), comes against a backdrop of cooler weather in most parts of the U.S., with exceptions in regions like the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Florida. NatGasWeather forecasts from April 4-10 indicate a mix of high demand due to cooler temperatures in the Great Lakes and East, and lower demand elsewhere due to milder weather. The near-term outlook for the natural gas market is tempered by expectations of moderate demand, influenced by upcoming mild weather conditions

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6926 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7134 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8773 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6783 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.6913 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8295 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.9977 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 4.69 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8788 R2 : 1.9739
  • S1 : 1.5709 S2 : 1.4758

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.814 | Take Profit: 1.608 | Stop Loss: 1.962

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.07%) at 2287.81, Silver is down (0.48%) at 26.75, Palladium is down (1.03%) at 1010.27, Platinum is down (1.42%) at 923.02, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.12%) at 90.71, WTI Crude Oil down (0.16%) at 86.45 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) Forecast –0.3%, Previous 0.1% at 14:30. (CAD) Employment Change (Mar) Forecast 25.9K, Previous 40.7K at 18:00. (USD) Unemployment Rate (Mar) Forecast 3.9%, Previous 3.9% at 18:00. (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) Forecast 212K, Previous 275K at 18:00. (CAD) Ivey PMI (Mar) Forecast 54.5, Previous 53.9 at 19:30.