. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil and Natural Gas Prices Decline.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil and Natural Gas Prices Decline.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil and Natural Gas Prices Decline.

27 Jun 2024

Introduction

Gold and silver prices struggle as the US Fed’s hawkish stance lifts bond yields and strengthens the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions offer some support for gold, but the overall outlook remains pressured. Oil prices fall on a surprise US crude inventory build, while natural gas futures decline due to supply concerns.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold price consolidates the downside as focus shifts to US PCE inflation.

Gold price attempts a minor recovery from a two-week low set on Wednesday.The Fed’s hawkish stance, higher US bond yields, and recent USD strength have acted as a headwind.Geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty help limit the downside for the safe-haven metal.Gold price (XAU/USD) holds near two-week lows, strugging to register any meaningful recovery while trading around the $2,300 mark in the European session on Thursday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a more hawkish stance at the end of the June meeting. Furthermore, policymakers continue to argue in favor of only one interest rate cut by the end of this year. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2319.4646 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2326.3362 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2316.9171 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2324.0252 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2326.0512 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2337.8970 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 45.2624 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 20.6121 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2321.60 | Take Profit : 2281.02 | Stop Loss : 2362.19

SILVER

XAG/USD drops toward $28.50 due to bearish bias.

Silver price may extend losses as daily chart analysis indicates a bearish bias.The XAG/USD pair consolidates within the descending channel pattern.The 14-day RSI suggests that Silver price trades within a range between $29.70-$28.70.Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around $28.70 per troy ounce during the early European session on Thursday. An analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish bias as the XAG/USD pair consolidates within the descending channel pattern.The momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates the strengthening of bearish bias for Silver. In terms of resistance, the Silver price may find the immediate barrier around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $29.30, followed by the significant level of $30.00.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.04 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.55 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.54 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 37.35 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.46 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.94 R2 : 30.75
  • S1 : 27.39 S2 : 25.91

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 28.57 | Take Profit : 27.13 | Stop Loss : 29.68

CRUDE OIL

WTI moves below $80.00 due to a surprise build in US crude stockpiles.

WTI price loses ground as a surprise build on US crude stockpiles raised concerns about weakening demand.US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change increased by 3.591 million barrels in the previous week, against an expected decline of 3.000 million barrels.US crude Oil imports reached 3.1 million barrels per day in May, the highest since July 2022.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price edges lower to near $80.30 during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating further from a two-month high of $81.65. Crude Oil prices received pressure after a surprise build in US crude stockpiles raised concerns about weakening demand in the world’s top Oil consumer. On Wednesday, US Energy Information Administration data showed that US Crude Oil Stocks Change increased by 3.591 million barrels in the week ending June 21, defying market expectations for a 3.000 million-barrel decline. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine could further fuel the prices of the Oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.4854 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.6827 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.4785 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.8387 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.5180 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3022 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.0290 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.8052 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 81.46 | Take Profit : 83.61 | Stop Loss : 80.05

NATURAL GAS

High Supply Offsetting Strong Heat-Driven Demand.

Natural gas futures experienced a decline , driven by heightened supply concerns and market repositioning ahead of the prompt month expiration. Despite high demand forecasts due to intense heat across much of the United States, futures have not rallied as expected.Given the current market situation, the outlook for natural gas futures remains bearish. High supply levels, compounded by infrastructure maintenance, continue to suppress prices despite strong demand driven by extreme heat. Traders should remain cautious, monitoring supply chain developments and weather forecasts closely.

Technical   Overview With Chart :|

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7137 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6755 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4573 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7376 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.7115 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3835 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.8282 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 16.5367 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.70 | Take Profit : 2.49 | Stop Loss : 2.86

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.21%) at 2303.14, Silver up (0.11%) at 28.79, Palladium down (0.04%) at 922.12, Platinum down (0.22%) at 1008.27, Brent Crude Oil up (0.41%) at 84.76, WTI Crude Oil up (0.42%) at 81.18 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 05:30. (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 1.3%, Previous 3.4% at 08:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 236K, Previous 238K at 08:30. (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.6%, Previous –7.7% at 10:00. (JPY) Industrial Production (MoM) (May) Forecast 2.0%, Previous –0.9% at 19:15.