. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil climbs, WTI steady, gas falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil climbs, WTI steady, gas falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil climbs, WTI steady, gas falls.

14 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices climb on optimistic demand forecasts despite headwinds. WTI crude regains ground after positive revisions to global oil demand for 2024. However, a stronger US Dollar and Russia exceeding production quotas could limit further gains. Natural gas futures dip as traders weigh potential supply increases and upcoming storage data. Gold and silver prices trade sideways on mixed signals. The hope for easing inflation is countered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI holds its position above $77.50 due to optimistic demand forecasts.

WTI Oil price retraces its recent losses due to optimistic forecasts regarding crude demand for the remainder of 2024.Russia surpassed its Oil production quota, which was agreed upon by the OPEC+ in May.The higher US Dollar makes crude Oil expensive for buyers with other currencies and dampens its demand.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price inches higher to near $77.80 per barrel during the Asian session on Friday. This rise in crude Oil prices is largely attributed to optimistic forecasts regarding crude demand for the remainder of the year. Reuters reported earlier in the week, the EIA increased its 2024 world Oil demand growth forecast to 1.10 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its 2024 forecast for robust growth in global Oil demand, citing expectations for increased travel and tourism in the second half of the year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.3827 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.5985 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.7683 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 76.2999 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.2972 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.0058 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.4186 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.54 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 78.93 | Take Profit : 76.76 | Stop Loss : 80.52

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Weighing Weather and MVP Impact Ahead of EIA Storage Data.

Natural gas futures declined as traders focused on potential supply increases from the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and anticipated the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report. Traders focus on MVP’s potential supply boost and await EIA’s weekly storage report, impacting natural gas futures today.EIA forecasts a 75 Bcf storage increase, with current levels 373 Bcf higher than last year and 581 Bcf above the five-year average.High temperatures across the U.S. from June 13-18 are expected to drive gas demand, with a hot ridge dominating southern states. With the MVP’s imminent operation and substantial gas storage levels, the near-term outlook for natural gas is bearish. While demand is expected to rise with increasing temperatures, the additional supply from MVP and high storage levels may suppress prices. Traders should monitor storage reports and pipeline developments closely for shifts in supply.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7538 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6162 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3428 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7340 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2.6349 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2026 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.1476 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.2422 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.81 | Take Profit : 3.07 | Stop Loss : 2.67

GOLD

Gold trades in familiar territory amid mixed signals from US economy.

Gold continues to trade in a range established in spring as traders respond to mixed macroeconomic signals. Whilst the data points to a fall in inflation, Fed officials are more cautious.Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday, pressured by a rebound in the dollar as the prospect of fewer U.S. interest rate cuts largely offset optimism over some cooling in inflation. While the yellow metal marked some gains for the week, it was nursing a sharp tumble from record highs in the face of high interest rates. Gold pressured by outlook of high rates Gold and broader metal prices retreated in recent sessions after the Federal Reserve said it expected to cut interest rates only once in 2024, compared to earlier forecasts for three cuts. While the yellow metal marked some gains after softer-than-expected consumer price index data weighed on the dollar, traders eventually pivoted back into the dollar following the Fed’s forecast.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2323.5235 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2332.7682 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2313.8857 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2326.7159 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2343.6816 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2344.2105 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.7534 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 25.8350 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2328.10 | Take Profit : 2295.63 | Stop Loss : 2355.70

SILVER

XAG/USD holds above $29.00 despite fading Fed rate cut hopes.

Silver price recovers to $29.05 in Friday’s early European session. The lower bets on the Fed rate cut weigh on the white metal. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.2% YoY in May, compared to the 2.3% increase in April, below expectations. The Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in positive territory near $29.05 on Friday during the early European session. The white metal finds some support and bounces off monthly lows around $28.65 despite the extended gains in US Dollar (USD). The upside for XAG/USD is likely to be limited amid the growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut its key interest rate just once by year-end. The markets are now raising their bet that the Fed could begin its easing cycle as soon as September amid signs of cooling inflationary pressures in the United States. The projections that the US Fed will cut rates only once by 25 basis points (bps) this year instead of the two that the consensus previously thought boost the US Dollar (USD) across the board and exert some selling pressure on non-yielding assets like Silver as it makes the white metal more expensive for overseas buyers.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.25 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 28.28 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.23 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.99 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 15.1 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 29.97 R2 : 31.53
  • S1 : 28.39 S2 : 27.24

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 29.72 | Take Profit : 28.28 | Stop Loss : 30.75

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.66%) at 2316.00, Silver up (0.31%) at 29.05, Palladium up (1.62%) at 897.32, Platinum up (0.8%) at 954.15, Brent Crude Oil up (0.21%) at 82.29, WTI Crude Oil up (0.27%) at 78.05 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) Forecast –0.1%, Previous 4.4% at 00:30. (JPY) BoJ Press Conference at 02:30. (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings at 06:00. (CAD) Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 1.3%, Previous –2.1% at 08:30. (USD) Fed Monetary Policy Report at 18:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 13:30.