. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil Dips, Natural Gas Falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Dips, Natural Gas Falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Dips, Natural Gas Falls.

24 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices dipped on Monday as the US dollar strengthened, dampening demand for commodities. Geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ cuts offered some support, but concerns about rising interest rates weighed on the market. Natural gas futures also fell on expectations of a storage build and potential disruptions from tropical storms. Gold prices edged higher on hopes for a Fed rate cut and safe-haven buying due to geopolitical jitters. Silver found support near its 50-day moving average.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

Oil eases as strong dollar weighs on commodities markets.

Oil prices inched down on Monday as concerns of higher-for-longer interest rates resurfaced and lifted the dollar, offsetting support for oil markets from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ supply cuts.A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities less attractive for holders of other currencies.However, both benchmark crude contracts gained about 3% last week on signs of stronger oil products demand in the U.S., world’s largest consumer, and as OPEC+ cuts kept supply in check.Investors are concerned about a wider conflict in the Middle East that could endanger crude flows from the region, which boost the WTI price. The UN Secretary-General said on Sunday that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be a catastrophe. Furthermore, the hope for a summertime uptick in fuel demand for cooling and travel purposes could further support WTI prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.9103 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.1456 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.2537 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.8980 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.1983 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.4389 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.8182 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.3528 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 80.27 | Take Profit : 82.36 | Stop Loss : 79.09

NATURAL GAS

Futures Decline as Production and Weather Concerns Persist.

Natural gas futures decline as traders await the EIA’s anticipated 69 Bcf inventory build, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid weather concerns. Despite excessive heat, strong supplies and looming tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico impact prices. High production and increased flow capacity drive prices lower, despite elevated demand for gas-fired electricity generation. Given the current conditions, the market is likely to see a short-term bearish outlook. The tropical storm’s cooling effects and potential disruptions may provide temporary support, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Traders should closely monitor the storm’s progression and its impact on supply and demand factors.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7406 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6707 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.4270 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7977 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6752 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3224 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.9680 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 50.5109 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.74 | Take Profit : 2.98 | Stop Loss : 2.60

GOLD

Gold price attracts some buyers amid Fed rate cut hopes, safe-haven flows.

Gold price kicks off the new week on a positive note and stalls Friday’s pullback from a two-week top.Bets that the Fed will cut rates in September Fed and geopolitical risk lend support to the XAU/USD.The USD stands tall near its highest level since May 9 and might act as a headwind for the commodity.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the early European trading bours on Monday and recovers a part of its retracement slide from a two-week high touched on Friday. Despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise, forecasting only one rate cut in 2024, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts this year amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. This, in turn, is seen weighing on the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a softer risk tone, geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in Europe, lend support to the safe-haven commodity.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2330.4292 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2333.1933 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2318.1654 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2325.9781 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2332.0424 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2341.8769 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.6020 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 50.0572 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2328.10 | Take Profit : 2282.64 | Stop Loss : 2365.44

SILVER

XAG/USD flat lines above mid-$29.00s, 50-day SMA holds the key for bulls.

Silver (XAG/USD) finds some support ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and stages a modest bounce from a three-day low, around the $29.35 region touched during the Asian session on Monday. The white metal, for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the vicinity of the $31.00 mark, or a two-week high touched on Friday, though struggles to attract any meaningful buyers. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD is holding above 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs, which favors bullish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting in negative territory and warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $29.15 area, is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $29.00 round-figure mark.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 29.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 29.96 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 29.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 29.72 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.09 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 32.2 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 30.68 R2 : 32.12
  • S1 : 29.16 S2 : 27.76

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 29.79 | Take Profit : 28.42 | Stop Loss : 30.79

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.43%) at 2331.19, Silver up (0.48%) at 29.67, Palladium down (2.43%) at 968.37, Platinum up (0.43%) at 995.16, Brent Crude Oil down (0.74%) at 84.38, WTI Crude Oil up (0.23%) at 80.73 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jun) Forecast 89.4, Previous 89.3 at 13:30. (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings at 20:30.