. Daily Commodity Analysis - oil dives, corn lows, gold reacts to bonds.

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil dives, corn lows, gold reacts to bonds.

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil dives, corn lows, gold reacts to bonds.

15 Feb 2024

Introduction

WTI faces renewed selling pressure, hovering around $76.00 amid a second consecutive day of retreats. Despite geopolitical risks, a surge in US inventories weighs on oil prices, while OPEC’s positive global demand outlook fails to provide support. In the corn market, futures hit new lows, influenced by a red trading session and ethanol-related data. Gold prices tick higher due to sliding US bond yields and geopolitical tensions, while Silver stabilizes above $22, awaiting guidance from US Retail Sales data. Federal Reserve comments suggest a hesitant stance on rate cuts, impacting precious metals.

Markets In Focus Today – Crude OIL

WTI retreats further from the monthly peak and seems vulnerable near the $76.00 mark.

WTI remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Thursday. A spike in US inventories overshadows geopolitical risks and weighs on Oil prices. The OPEC sees a rise in global demand in 2024, and 2025, albeit fails to lend support. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices extend the overnight pullback from the vicinity of mid-$78.00s, or a fresh monthly peak and drift lower for the second successive day on Thursday. The commodity hovers around the $76.00 mark during the Asian session and remains well within the striking distance of the weekly low touched on Monday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 75.9666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 75.3486 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.1257 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 75.2912 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 75.5299 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 73.5075 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.0784 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 68.9884 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy : 75.62 | Take Profit: 78.29 | Stop Loss: 74.13

Corn

New Lows in Corn Market.

The Wednesday trading session has corn futures 6 ¾ to 7 ¾ cents in the red and trading just a tick off the lows for the day – said lows are new LoC lows for the corn market. So far during February, and December corn has averaged a close of $4.74. The full-month average is used to define this year’s base Crop Insurance price. EIA’s weekly report showed ethanol output increased by 50k barrels per day to 1.083 million for the week that ended 2/9. Ethanol stocks were 1.03 million looser to 25.81 million barrels. Ahead of USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum, the trade is looking for the OCE to project 2024 US corn acreage at 91.6 million acres. The data is scheduled for release at 7:00 AM EST this Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2954 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.3575 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.5031 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.3057 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.3694 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.5276 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 25.4972 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 7.1239 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.6002 R2 : 4.6768
  • S1 : 4.3518 S2 : 4.2752

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 484.11 | Take Profit: 461.40 | Stop Loss: 500.96

Gold

Gold price ticks higher as sliding US bond yields keep USD bulls on the defensive.

Gold price attracts some buyers amid sliding US bond yields and subdued USD price action. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Delayed Fed rate cut bets could underpin the USD and cap gains for the non-yielding metal. Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher during the first half of the European session and moves away from a two-month low, near the $1,984 area touched the previous day. The ongoing retracement slide in the US Treasury bond yields keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive below the highest level since November 14 touched earlier this week, which, in turn, is seen lending support to the commodity. Apart from this, geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2013.7156 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2021.5959 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2021.1856 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2019.4916 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2024.5060 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2031.6869 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.7242 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.1603 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
  • S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2004.50 | Take Profit: 1977.90 | Stop Loss: 2021.21

Silver

XAG/USD stabilizes above $22 on subdued USD Index, US Retail Sales eyed.

Silver price seems steady above $22 while US Dollar corrects. Fed Goolsbee said one-time persistent inflation is insufficient to temper long-term downtrend. The US Retail Sales data will guide the Silver price. Silver price (XAG/USD) managed to shift its auction above the crucial resistance of $22 in the early European session on Thursday as investors digest that rate cuts by the won’t be announced Federal Reserve (Fed) at least before June. The expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in the May monetary policy meeting have cooled down significantly on the persistent inflation outlook.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.40 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.42 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.44 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.16 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.98 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.58 R2 : 22.34
  • S1 : 22.11 S2 : 21.57

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 22.76 | Take Profit: 23.34 | Stop Loss: 22.48

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold was up (0.21%) at 1996.99, Silver up (0.94%) at 22.56, Palladium up (2.8%) at 961.16, Platinum up (0.03%) at 873.43, Brent Crude Oil down (0.38%) at 81.31, WTI Crude Oil down (0.44%) at 76.25 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Actual –0.3%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous –0.1% at 02:00. (GBP) Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Dec) Actual –0.3%, Previous –0.2% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Dec) Actual –0.1%, Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.3% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (YoY) Actual 0.0%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2% at 02:00. (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) Actual 0.8%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous 0.4% at 02:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 13:30. (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.4% at 08:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 219K, Previous 218K at 08:30.