. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil dives, gas surges, gold holds.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil dives, gas surges, gold holds.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil dives, gas surges, gold holds.

06 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI oil prices decline to around $77.70, marking a third consecutive session of losses amid rising concerns over demand, fueled by disappointing US factory data and unexpected increases in crude oil stock. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas futures experience volatility, settling higher as participants weigh lower production against bearish weather forecasts. Gold prices trade slightly lower, approaching the all-time peak, as traders anticipate Fed Chair Powell’s statement and scrutinize geopolitical risks. Silver rebounds near the year-to-date peak, hovering around $24.00, supported by a positive technical setup and bullish prospects.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI extends its losses to near $77.70 as demand concerns rise after US factory data.

WTI price continues to lose ground on concerns over oil demand.US Factory Orders (MoM) dropped by 3.6% in January, against the expected decline of 2.9%.US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock reported 0.423 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.6 million barrels.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the third successive session, trading lower near $77.70 per barrel on Wednesday. Concerns about demand weigh on Crude oil prices following recent data indicating slowing economic activity in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. However, the weaker US Dollar (USD) may provide some support to oil prices by increasing demand from buyers using other currencies.The increased apprehension regarding oil demand has tempered the impact of efforts by OPEC+ countries, Russia included, to enact voluntary oil output cuts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.3378 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.6871 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 76.5517 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.2870 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.9429 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 75.3427 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 55.9934 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 11.94 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 78.03 | Take Profit : 75.88 | Stop Loss : 79.75

NATURAL GAS

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain Ground in Choppy Trade.

Natural gas futures settle higher in a choppy session with participants weighing the impact of lower production against bearishly warm weather forecasts that are likely to increase storage surpluses through the end of the heating season. “The weather will continue to be the primary short-term story, and the production cuts will change the trajectory of the market, but really over the longer term,” Eli Rubin of EBW Analytic says. He estimates the storage surplus–currently near 500 billion cubic feet–will peak around 700 Bcf. Natural gas for April delivery settles up 4 cents or 2.1% at $1.957/mmBtu after briefly touching the $2 mark for the first time in a month.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8406 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.8843 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.1218 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8066 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7875 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.2508 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.8610 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 84.2365 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.76 | Take Profit : 2.18 | Stop Loss : 1.55

GOLD

Gold price keeps the red below all-time peak ahead of US data, Fed’s Powell.

Gold price edges lower amid some profit-taking ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s statement.Bets for a June Fed rate cut undermine the USD and lend support to the XAU/USD.Geopolitical risks and China’s economic woes also limit losses for the safe-haven metal.Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a mild negative bias during the early part of the European session on Wednesday, albeit lacks follow-through remains well within the striking distance of the all-time peak. Traders opt to lighten their bullish bets after the recent rally witnessed over the past week or so and ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. Powell’s remarks will be scrutinized closely for cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Traders on Wednesday will also confront the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data, due later during the early North American session.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2077.4352 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2056.0092 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2037.1216 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2064.9212 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2039.8486 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2037.5407 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 77.1971 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 91.9516 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2111.48 | Take Profit : 2134.00 | Stop Loss : 2099.39

SILVER

XAG/USD flirts with YTD peak, bulls await move beyond $24.00 mark.

Silver reverses an intraday dip and moves back closer to the YTD peak on Tuesday.The technical setup favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains.Sustained weakness back below the $23.00 mark will negate the positive outlook.Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buying near the $23.65-$23.60 region on Tuesday and flirts with the YTD peak during the first half of the European session. The white metal currently trades just below the $24.00 mark and looks to build on the previous day’s breakout momentum through the $23.30-$23.35 confluence hurdle.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.05 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.91 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.55 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 23.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 68.44 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 70.39 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 24.44 R2 : 25.47
  • S1 : 23.27 S2 : 22.38

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 23.49 | Take Profit : 24.44 | Stop Loss : 22.94

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.16%) at 2124.91, Silver up (0.16%) at 23.69, Palladium up (0.88%) at 956.48, Platinum up (0.49%) at 886.13, Brent Crude Oil up (0.59%) at 82.52, WTI Crude Oil up (0.77%) at 78.76 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 06:00. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 1.1%, Previous –2.1% at 06:00. (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) Forecast 149K, Previous 107K at 18:45. (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.00%, Previous 5.00% at 20:15. (USD) JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) Forecast 8.800M, Previous 9.026M at 20:30. (CAD) BoC Press Conference at 21:00.