. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil down, Gas up, Gold steady, Copper retreats.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil down, Gas up, Gold steady, Copper retreats.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil down, Gas up, Gold steady, Copper retreats.

20 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil sees a slight dip near $82.40 as profit-taking kicks in, with market attention fixed on the FOMC’s monetary policy decision. The surge in the US Dollar adds pressure on oil demand. Meanwhile, Natural Gas rallies amid global supply concerns. Gold prices stabilize ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, while copper retreats from an 11-month high amidst profit-taking and anticipation of the Fed’s stance.

Markets In Focus Today – Crude Oil

WTI corrects to near $82.40 on profit booking, eyes on FOMC monetary policy.

WTI price inches lower on market caution ahead of Fed decision. The higher US Dollar dampens Crude oil demand. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock declined by 1.519 million barrels, contrasting with the previous decrease of 5.521 million barrels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower to near $82.40 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, as Crude oil prices corrected from recent highs, with investors booking profits. Additionally, the market has adopted a cautious stance ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The higher US Dollar (USD) is also making oil more expensive for countries with different currencies, thereby impacting oil demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.8881 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.6808 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.8723 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.3286 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.3282 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.9914 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 64.1513 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.0580 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.28 | Take Profit : 83.59 | Stop Loss : 79.97

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas rallies 2.5% with global supply issues ahead.

Natural Gas prices are trying to test the $1.90 resistance. A mix of geopolitical pressure, ESG, and unforeseen outages are the main drivers supporting prices. The US Dollar Index rallies to 104.00 after the BoJ delivered a dovish hike. Natural Gas prices (XNG/USD) are rallyed for a second consecutive day on Tuesday towards the key $1.90 resistance level. When overlooking the charts, gas prices have jumped actually near 20% in five days combined on all gas contracts with near 6% on XNG/USD alone. Traders are seeing a mixture of reasons to keep Gas prices supported, from the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine to the push for green energy and ESG costs adding a premium to Gas prices. Adding to these, unforeseen outages in the US and Norway are also hitting production.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7297 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7760 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.9874 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7169 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7610 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.0493 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 43.5587 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 96.01 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 1.73 | Take Profit : 1.98 | Stop Loss : 1.61

GOLD

Gold prices steady with Fed in focus.

Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Wednesday, steadying from recent volatility as markets looked to the Federal Reserve for more cues on interest rate cuts in 2024. Bullion prices remained well below record highs hit earlier in March. But they also appeared to have found support around the $2,150 an ounce level. Metal markets were now focused squarely on the conclusion of a Fed meeting later on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. But any signals on its plans to cut interest rates in 2024 are expected to drive the next leg of movement for gold. In particular focus will be a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2150.8758 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2124.4939 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2079.5328 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2164.5937 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2115.8658 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2061.6749 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 67.6498 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.5502 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2159.98 | Take Profit : 2172.26 | Stop Loss : 2153.22

COPPER

copper retreats from 11-mth peak.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange steadied below the closely watched $9,000 a ton level, while one-month U.S. copper futures rose 0.3% to $4.0793 a pound. Both instruments fell sharply from 11-month highs this week, as strength in the dollar and anticipation of the Fed spurred heavy profit-taking. An initial boost, from the prospect of tighter Chinese copper output, also appeared to have run out of steam. Focus now turns to a string of key purchasing managers index readings from major global economies, due in the coming days, for more potential cues on copper demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.03 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.96 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.07 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.04 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.66 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 2.46 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.07 R2 : 4.15
  • S1 : 4.00 S2 : 3.93

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 4.02 | Take Profit : 3.93 | Stop Loss : 4.07

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.01%) at 2157.29, Silver down (0.12%) at 24.87, Palladium down (0.86%) at 982.09, Platinum down (0.5%) at 890.08, Brent Crude Oil down (0.39%) at 87.04, WTI Crude Oil down (0.41%) at 82.39 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) CPI (YoY) Feb) Actual Forecast 3.5%, Previous 4.0% at 03:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 04:45. (USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.50% at 14:00. (USD) FOMC Statement at 14:00. (USD) FOMC Press Conference at 14:30. (NZD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 0.1%, Previous –0.3% at 17:45. (AUD) Employment Change (Feb) Forecast 40.2K, Previous 0.5K at 20:30.