. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil falters, gas holds, gold falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil falters, gas holds, gold falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil falters, gas holds, gold falls.

13 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil slips near $77.70 despite optimistic OPEC projections for global demand. Meanwhile, natural gas futures remain steady amidst mild weather and production cuts, while gold prices retreat from record highs following robust CPI data. Additionally, copper prices show muted movement as China’s economic optimism wavers.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI inches lower to near $77.70 despite a strong OPEC’s outlook for global demand.

WTI price moves lower despite a strong outlook for global oil demand.OPEC maintained its previous demand forecasts unchanged with a rise of 2.25M bpd in 2024 and 1.85M bpd in 2025. Fed is still anticipated to begin implementing rate cuts in the summer, despite persistent inflationary pressures. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price edges lower to near $77.70 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, Crude oil prices could receive upward support on a strong outlook for global demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025. On Tuesday, OPEC kept its previous forecasts unchanged in a monthly report that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. OPEC also said a “robust dynamic” for economic growth towards the end of 2023 was expected to extend into the first half of 2024 and raised its 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.2330 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 77.9055 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 76.8666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.5204 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.3131 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 75.9626 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.1753 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.0703 | Neutral Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 78.14 | Take Profit: 76.31 | Stop Loss: 79.42

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Steady Amid Mild Weather and Production Cuts.

U.S. natural gas futures are currently on a downtrend, influenced by weather patterns and demand fluctuations. Over the next week, the interior United States will experience mild conditions with temperatures ranging from the 50s to 80s. A cold front moving into central and eastern regions by the weekend will bring higher demand due to cooler temperatures. However, overall demand is forecasted to be very low until Saturday, then shifting to moderate levels on Sunday and Monday. Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a modest 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) withdrawal from natural gas storage, markedly lower than both last year’s 72 bcf and the five-year average of 93 bcf. This decrease is attributed to the warmer weather patterns and a corresponding reduction in demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7626 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.8204 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.0498 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7957 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7584 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.1723 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.8596 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 17.8679 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.77 | Take Profit: 1.53 | Stop Loss: 1.94

GOLD

Gold prices fall from record highs, near $2,150 after hot CPI data.

Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Wednesday, but were nursing a tumble from record highs after a strong U.S. inflation reading kept fears of higher-for-longer interest rates in play. The yellow metal was also hit with a degree of profit-taking after surging as high as $2,200 earlier this week. While gold’s initial bounce was triggered by bets on early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Tuesday’s consumer price index data swiftly cooled those bets. The markets, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will start cutting interest rates in June. This is reinforced by a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the Gold price.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2135.4858 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2101.1222 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2061.4952 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2135.6015 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2079.7784 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2048.9520 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 73.3552 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 84.1210 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2150.60 | Take Profit: 2177.85 | Stop Loss: 2134.82

COPPER

Copper prices muted, China cheer cools.

Among industrial metals, copper futures expiring in May fell 0.2% to 3.9283 a pound. The red metal saw some strength in recent sessions on hopes that top importer China will roll out more stimulus measures to support an economic recovery this year. But the economic outlook for China remained dour, especially after Beijing set a largely underwhelming GDP target for 2024, at 5%- the same as 2023.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.91 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.89 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.89 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.90 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.72 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.95 R2 : 4.03
  • S1 : 3.88 S2 : 3.80

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.93 | Take Profit: 4.01 | Stop Loss: 3.89

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.1%) at 2159.90, Silver is up (0.12%) at 24.17, Palladium is down (0.13%) at 1040.13, Platinum is up (0.92%) at 928.42, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.33%) at 82.19, WTI Crude Oil up (0.36%) at 77.84 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.8% at 12:30. (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Jan) Forecast –0.3%, Previous 0.0% at 12:30. (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous –0.1% at 12:30. (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) Forecast –1.8%, Previous 2.6% at 06:00. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 0.900M, Previous 1.367M at 10:30.