. Daily Commodity Analysis - oil, gas, gold, copper turmoil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas, gold, copper turmoil.

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas, gold, copper turmoil.

16 Jan 2024

Introduction

Oil prices grapple with a mixed outlook amid global economic uncertainties and Red Sea tensions. Concerns over China’s demand and potential OPEC production cuts weigh on the market. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas faces supply constraints due to extreme cold, pushing prices to multi-year highs. Gold retreats as the USD strengthens amid geopolitical tensions, and copper slips on a stronger dollar ahead of key cues from China’s economic data. Markets await the US Federal Reserve’s guidance from Governor Christopher Waller.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil prices mixed amid economic concerns and Red Sea issues.

Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday, after posting losses the previous session, as broad economic concerns outweighed continued tensions in the Middle East that led to more tanker diversions. Some concerns over how China’s demand could pan out in the near term after the country’s central bank left the medium-term policy rate (MLF) unchanged on Monday, also weighed on oil prices. Ongoing energy market concerns continue to fret about potential supply chain disruptions and the potential for production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to take a bite out of global energy markets’ ability to meet fossil fuel demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.98 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.03 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.88 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.91 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.81 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 53.11 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 78.05 | Take Profit: 80.86 | Stop Loss: 76.57

NATURAL GAS

US natural gas supplies drop, record demand forecast.

U.S. natural gas supplies have fallen by the most in over a year as extreme cold froze wells, while heating demand was on track to hit a record on Tuesday and lift both power and gas prices to multi-year highs. Analysts boosted earlier forecasts for record gas demand on Tuesday but reduced their outlook for gas use on Monday, in part because many businesses and government offices will remain shut for the long U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend. U.S. gas production was on track to drop by about 10.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past week to a preliminary 11-month low of 97.1 bcfd on Monday due primarily to freeze-offs when low temperatures freeze wells and other equipment.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.03 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 53.66 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2.972 | Take Profit: 3.233 | Stop Loss: 2.831

GOLD

Gold halts a winning streak, and trades near $2,050.

Gold price snapped a three-day winning streak, trading lower near $2,050 per troy ounce during the early European session on Tuesday. The prices of the precious metal face downward pressure as US Dollar (USD) improves on the back of upbeat US bond yields. Gold price has turned red for the first time in four trading days, stalling its recovery momentum from three-week lows of $2,013. Gold price is undermined by renewed US Dollar demand across the board, as investors scurry for safety in the Greenback amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Attention now turns toward the highly-anticipated speech by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller due later at 16:00 GMT.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2041.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2040.40 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2020.01 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2038.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2048.02 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2020.39 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.19 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 45.66 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2035.20 | Take Profit: 2063.05 | Stop Loss: 2018.95

COPPER

Copper slips ahead of more China cues.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell on Tuesday, coming under pressure from a stronger dollar and as traders positioned for more cues from the world’s largest copper importer this week. China is set to release fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures on Wednesday, capping off a year of languid economic activity. While GDP is still set to exceed the government’s 5% annual target, the rise is largely driven by a lower base for comparison from 2022. With the Chinese economy showing little signs of improvement in recent months, this trend is expected to persist. But copper prices may see some strength from increasing demand from other sources, particularly a push into green energy.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.768 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.780 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.839 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.768 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.781 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.840 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.67 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.86 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.807 R2 : 3.862
  • S1 : 3.745 S2 : 3.691

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 3.750 | Take Profit: 3.807 | Stop Loss: 3.713

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.56%) at 2042.84, Silver is down (0.64%) at 23.05, Palladium is down (1.1%) at 959.32, Platinum is down (1.1%) at 959.32, Brent Crude is up (0.61%) at 78.64, WTI Crude Oil up (0.25%) at 72.97 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Building Approvals (MoM) Forecast 1.6%, Previous 7.5% at 06:00. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.1%, Previous –0.4% at 12:30. (CAD) CPI (MoM) (Dec) Forecast –0.3%, Previous 0.1% at 19:00. (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) Previous 0.1% at 19:00. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:30.